Semi scenarios: India, Proteas in Group 2 box seat

UPDATE: View the latest semi-final scenarios here

With just seven Super 12 matches to go at the T20 World Cup, the semi-final push is heating up for a number of pre-tournament contenders.

India's last-ball victory over a valiant Bangladesh on Wednesday night has put them in the box seat to finish top two in Group 2, while Pakistan are clinging to the faintest hopes they can still advance and simply must beat South Africa tonight to have any chance.

Defending champions Australia ticked off their first goal by beating Ireland on Monday, however they not only face a must-win game against Afghanistan on Friday in Adelaide but will rely on other results (or margins) going to their way in a fascinating Group 1 struggle.

And for those teams whose semi-final ambitions might already be beyond them, the carrot of automatic qualification to the 2024 T20 World Cup means there's still plenty to play for.

Here's a team-by-team look at their semi-final chances.

Group 1

New Zealand

Results so far: beat Australia, washout with Afghanistan, beat Sri Lanka, lost to England

Games to come: Ireland (Friday, Adelaide)

Defeat to England on Monday night was a blow, but the Black Caps’ T20 World Cup fate remains in their own hands owing largely to a strong net run rate (NRR). Put simply, victory over Ireland in Adelaide on Friday afternoon will hand them top spot in Group 1 and an opportunity to make a second consecutive T20 World Cup final. Defeat, however, leaves them relying on either Australia losing to Afghanistan (a match immediately following their clash against Ireland), as whoever takes the points from England versus Sri Lanka would overtake New Zealand in that scenario.

England

Results so far: beat Afghanistan, lost to Ireland (DLS), washout with Australia, beat New Zealand

Games to come: Sri Lanka (Saturday, SCG)

Victory against the Black Caps has propelled England into pole position in their battle with Australia for a semi-final spot. Should they prevail against Sri Lanka on Saturday, Jos Buttler’s side will likely progress to the final four. However there is a scenario whereby England win and still don’t progress, owing to NRR, which would rely on their victory over Sri Lanka being slim and Australia thrashing Afghanistan by a considerable margin. Should either Australia or New Zealand lose to Afghanistan or Ireland respectively (matches that take place a day prior to their clash against Sri Lanka), NRR would not come in the equation, and England would simply progress with any form of victory.

Australia

Results so far: Lost to NZ, beat Sri Lanka, washout with England, beat Ireland

Game to come: Afghanistan (Friday, Adelaide)

England’s win over New Zealand at the Gabba has left Australia with a tricky path to the semi-finals. The hosts are now relying on upsets in the final round of Group 1 matches, or a huge victory over Afghanistan to beef up a lowly NRR. Should either of those upsets occur – that is, Ireland defeat New Zealand or Sri Lanka defeat England – the Aussies would progress to the semi-finals with any form of victory over the Afghans. Should results go as expected, however, Australia (NRR -0.3) would need to seal a huge win to not only overtake England (NRR +0.55) but give themselves enough of a buffer to shield themselves from Jos Buttler’s side leapfrogging them again. Just to overtake England’s NRR alone, Australia would need to beat Afghanistan by approximately 60 runs if batting first, or chase a target of 140 in roughly 13 overs. England also have the advantage of playing their match on Saturday, after Australia’s match against Afghanistan on Friday, which could make captain Aaron Finch’s tactical approach at the Adelaide Oval a fascinating watch.

Ireland

Results so far: lost to Sri Lanka, beat England (DLS), washout with Afghanistan, lost to Australia

Game to come: New Zealand, (Friday, Adelaide)

Their semi-final dream is officially over after being beaten by the Aussies, and things will not get any easier for the Irish with New Zealand to come. Their goal now is a good showing against New Zealand but unless they can cause a second major upset and win that game they will finish no higher than fifth, meaning they will have a nervous wait to see if they will automatically qualify for the 2024 T20 World Cup (more on that process at the bottom of this article).

Sri Lanka

Results so far: beat Ireland, lost to Australia, lost to NZ, beat Afghanistan

Games to come: England (Saturday, SCG)

After victory over Afghanistan, Sri Lanka are still in with a semi-final chance, although they need an awful lot to go their way to progress. First and foremost, they need either Ireland to upset New Zealand on Friday afternoon OR Afghanistan to upset Australia in the game immediately following. Then, on Saturday, they must knock off England in what is set to be an exciting clash at the SCG.

Afghanistan

Results so far: Lost to England, washout v New Zealand, washout v Ireland, lost to Sri Lanka

Games to come: Australia (Friday, Adelaide)

Defeat to Sri Lanka on Tuesday spelled the end of any remote Afghanistan hopes this T20 World Cup, but in truth it was Melbourne’s big wet that ruined their chances after two MCG washouts against New Zealand and Ireland respectively. While they cannot progress beyond the match against Australia in Adelaide, there’s little chance they will view the clash as a dead rubber in what is a rare chance to send the T20 World Cup hosts packing.

Group 2

India

Results so far: beat Pakistan, beat Netherlands, lost to South Africa, beat Bangladesh

Games to come: Zimbabwe (Sunday, MCG)

A thrilling victory against Bangladesh in Adelaide took the Indians to top spot in their group and has them poised to progress through to the semi-finals. All they need to do from here is get over the top of Zimbabwe in front of what is expected to be a packed MCG crowd later this week, while even if they do falter in their final group game, they could still progress through to the last four depending on other results. 

South Africa

Results so far: washout with Zimbabwe, beat Bangladesh, beat India

Games to come: Pakistan (Thursday, SCG), Netherlands (Sunday, Adelaide)

The Proteas have the chance to reclaim top spot in Group 2 tonight when they take on a desperate Pakistan in Adelaide. Only needing one win from their remaining two games to confirm their place in the semi-finals, the South Africans look poised to go deep into the tournament with a potent fast-bowling unit and a powerful top-order who have already done some damage this World Cup. 

Bangladesh

Results so far: beat Netherlands, lost to South Africa, beat Zimbabwe, lost to India

Games to come: Pakistan (Sunday, Adelaide)

A heartbreaking loss to India overnight put a massive dent in the Tigers' semi-final hopes, however they will go into their must-win clash with Pakistan on Sunday full of confidence after a strong tournament to date. Should they beat Pakistan, they would rely on the unlikely event that Zimbabwe defeat India by a considerable margin, and that South Africa lose both of their remaining two matches. It's a long shot, but Bangladesh will take solace in the fact that they have likely secured themselves automatic qualification in the 2024 T20 World Cup. 

Zimbabwe

Results so far: washout with South Africa, beat Pakistan, lost to Bangladesh, lost to Netherlands

Games to come: India (Sunday, MCG)

After starting their Super 12 campaign with so much promise, the Zimbabweans would be disappointed with their loss to the Dutch on Wednesday afternoon that essentially ended their tournament. That followed a drama-filled three-run loss to Bangladesh last week, with the Chevrons at one point looking a genuine threat of emerging from Group 2. Attention now turns to qualifying for the next version of the T20 World Cup, with a win over India on Sunday required should Pakistan leapfrog them by winning one of their next two games. 

Pakistan

Results so far: lost to India, lost to Zimbabwe, beat Netherlands

Games to come: South Africa (Thursday, SCG), Bangladesh (Sunday, Adelaide)

The last-gasp loss to India hurt, but the defeat to Zimbabwe is really where their campaign came unstuck. But Pakistan fans will be clinging to hope that they remain a mathematical possibility of reaching the semi-finals. Pakistan must win both remaining games, handsomely, and at the same time hope for a series of unlikely events to all fall in their favour. The first step in that process was ticked off when the Dutch beat Zimbabwe on Wednesday afternoon. Defeating an in-form South Africa outfit will be no mean feat, and in this tournament a win against Bangladesh can't be guaranteed either. But if they can manage two wins there, they will then need Zimbabwe to knock off India on Sunday evening in Adelaide, or an unlikely Netherlands victory over South Africa. If that happens, it will be down to NRR with the arch-rivals both finishing with three wins apiece, while South Africa would remain on their five points from two wins and one washout leaving them in third place. 

Netherlands

Results so far: lost to Bangladesh, lost to India, lost to Pakistan, beat Zimbabwe 

Games to come: South Africa (Sunday, Adelaide)

A well-deserved win over Zimbabwe was the Dutch's first of the Super 12 stage and gave their fans something to smile about on Wednesday afternoon. Unable to advance to the semi-finals, the Netherlands could shake up Group 2 with an upset against the Proteas, with a win on Sunday also keeping their hopes of qualifying for the 2024 event alive should Zimbabwe lose. 

2024 T20 World Cup qualification explained

Results in this current tournament will go a long way to determining the line-up for the next T20 World Cup, to be co-hosted by the USA and West Indies in 2024. That tournament will be expanded to feature 20 teams for the first time, with 12 teams to be awarded automatic qualification.

The two co-hosts will get immediate entry, as well as the top eight teams from the current tournament in Australia – ie, those finishing in the top four in each Super 12 group.

The final two automatic qualification spots will be the next two highest ranked teams on the ICC's T20 team rankings at November 14 (the day after the current tournament concludes).

That puts extra emphasis on matches like Afghanistan v Sri Lanka, and Netherlands v Zimbabwe in the current Super 12 stage.

The remaining eight spots at the World Cup will come via regional qualifier tournaments with the top two teams from events in Africa, Asia and Europe winning through, as well as one apiece from the Americas and East Asia Pacific groups.