Only another Stokes miracle can save England Ashes hopes

Should Ben Stokes somehow nurse the bottom half of England's brittle batting through 90 overs of relentless Australia bowling today, it will make the miracle of Headingley 2019 seem merely the work of a pantomime magician.

Trailing by 385 runs, with only Ollie Pope (series average 14.67), Jos Buttler (20.67) and Chris Woakes (20.33) to support the mercurial allrounder before England's tail is exposed, it will require combined heroics of Stokes, Flintoff and Botham to prevent the tourists slipping to an 0-2 Vodafone Ashes Series deficit sometime this afternoon or evening.

And when they do, history tells us the fate of the tiny terracotta urn is effectively decided.

Only once in the 152 five-Test series fought out by nations since the first between Australia and England in 1884-85 has a team who surrendered the first two matches come back to win the last three.

It happened in the Australia summer of 1936-37 after England recorded thumping wins at Brisbane (322 runs) and Sydney (an innings and 22) because ... well, you know, Bradman.

For all his game-changing attributes, Stokes has not yet stacked a record quite the same as the bloke who'd scored 21 Test centuries – including a pair of triple-hundreds and eight doubles – by the time he was Stokes's current age of 30 years 200 days.

But that's not the principal reason England are all-but assured of failing in their long-planned attempt to win back the trophy they last secured on Australia turf in 2010-11, a series rapidly appearing as much aberration as it was sprinkler-dance celebration.

In the seven completed Ashes campaigns played here either side of the 3-1 triumph executed by Andrew Strauss's men more than a decade ago, England have won precisely zero 'live' Tests with their solitary victories in 1994-95, 1998-99 (both at MCG) and 2002-03 (SCG) all coming after Australia had retained the Ashes.

That record is even more dismal for the past three series excluding 2010-11, in which they have not celebrated a win of any sort.

And even the draw they secured at Melbourne in the previous campaign came thanks to Alastair Cook's epic 10-and-a-half-hour innings on a pitch that yielded just 24 wickets over five days and was deemed 'poor' by the ICC.

The pattern of those winless tours in 2006-07, 2013-14 and 2017-18 is worryingly familiar.

Hefty losses in the series openers at the Gabba (by 277 runs, 381 runs and 10 wickets respectively) followed by marginally better showings at Adelaide (defeat by six wickets, 218 runs and 120 runs) then invariably descends into free-fall.

Given Joe Root's squad has already registered a nine-wicket loss at the Gabba and is seemingly only Stokes's wicket away from an even bigger walloping at Adelaide Oval today, there is sage reason to suspect history's about to repeat as surely as a raw onion washed down with fish oil.

However, current bowling coach Jon Lewis – who was also part of the limited-overs outfit that provided some England redemption after the 5-0 whitewash of 2006-07 – believes there are sound reasons why this tour will be different.

"The spirit in the dressing room and the character of the guys in the dressing room is still really strong," Lewis said after another gruelling day for the tourists in Adelaide when they saw skipper Joe Root felled three times, twice to body blows and ultimately his wicket to the day's final delivery.

"I was in and around the 06-7 tour when we lost 5-0, and that went downhill pretty quickly after we were out of the series.

"However, this group of players is a younger group and there's some guys there who are really evolving as cricketers and learning as cricketers.

"I see them working really hard at their games, day-in, day-out and I'm confident they can maintain their spirit because they're a pretty close-knit bunch of fellas.

"The guys are certainly talking about it a lot, they're practicing a lot and now it's about going out into the middle under pressure and executing.

"It's not for the lack of trying, and not for the lack of hard work.

"We're still making mistakes, but I think we're making less of them than we were at the Gabba."

Given England lost a wicket to the opening ball of the series, dropped half a dozen catches and claimed a vital wicket from what was later ruled a no-ball in Brisbane, it's not an assessment that offers a lot of solace.

Of greater concern, however, has been some of the decision-making employed before Root has even led his team on to the field and specifically around the make-up of the tourists' bowling attack.

At the Gabba, they took a cautious approach with their most successful-ever Test bowler James Anderson who reported calf soreness, and also opted to exclude his veteran new-ball partner Stuart Broad who many commentators believed would have proved a handful on a green-tinged pitch.

The pair were then reinstated for Adelaide in favour of England's fastest bowler Mark Wood and their sole specialist spinner Jack Leach, both of whom watched from the sidelines as Australia's genuine quicks (Mitchell Starc and Jhye Richardson) and front-line spinner Nathan Lyon shared 10 of the 14 England wickets to fall thus far.

Lewis does not believe England fielded the wrong line-up in Adelaide, though he noted that criticism might carry some validity when viewed through the lens of retrospect.

He also pointed out the spin-bowling duties were to be picked up by Root in Leach's absence but, after he claimed 1-72 from 20 overs in Australia's first innings, the training blow he copped to his 'abdomen' before play began yesterday meant he was not able to bowl until the 36th over of the second.

He duly finished with his team's best figures of 2-27, and very part-time leg-spinner Dawid Malan was next-best with 2-33 which represented his only wickets from 19 Tests across four and half years in which he's sent down 26 overs.

Seamer Ollie Robinson went wicketless from his three overs of off-spin, and Lewis admitted that innovation had not featured in England's pre-game planning although he had witnessed Robinson bowl spin previously in the nets for Sussex so it was "not an alien skill" to the paceman.

"The wicket's obviously turning now, so we would have wanted Joe (Root) to do a lot of work in the second innings," Lewis said after day four.

"And we felt the ball would move around under the lights a little bit more than it has.

"In hindsight, you might say we could have picked a different side but at the time we felt like we picked the team that would win the game."

What can't be questioned, as became painfully obvious on a couple of occasions yesterday, is Root's commitment to his team's cause and his unflinching preparedness to lead.

So painful was the hit he copped to his 'abdomen' pre-play yesterday – a blow landed during a series of throwdowns with spin bowling coach Jeetan Patel deemed so gentle Root did not bother to affix a protective 'box' – he went for precautionary scans before taking the field in the second session.

And after copping an altogether more violent hit to the same region from Starc in the shadow of stumps, he sought lengthy medical help, was granted space and privacy as he tried to regain breath and composure, and was clearly inconvenienced when trying to move.

But even though Starc was charging in with England's last experienced batting pair under furious siege, Root opted to continue batting rather than retire hurt and resume his vital innings when in better health later today.

"Joe's a strong leader in this group, and he showed a helluva lot of character to get out there and fight because I know he was pretty sore," Lewis said of the skipper who this calendar year has set a new runs record (1630) for an England Test batter.

"And then once he got hit there again (by Starc), to stay on.

"He could easily have walked off then and a nightwatchman come in, but that's the character of the man and what it means to him to be England captain.

"He wants to show his team how hard he wants to fight for the team, and how hard we're prepared to fight to get back in this game."

But if that fight is lost later today, the battle is effectively over and this is seemingly destined to become yet another failed Australia campaign.

Vodafone Men's Ashes

Squads

Australia: Pat Cummins (c), Steve Smith (vc), Alex Carey, Cameron Green, Josh Hazlewood, Marcus Harris, Travis Head, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson, Mitchell Starc, Mitchell Swepson, David Warner

England: Joe Root (c), James Anderson, Jonathan Bairstow, Dom Bess, Stuart Broad, Rory Burns, Jos Buttler, Zak Crawley, Haseeb Hameed, Dan Lawrence, Jack Leach, Dawid Malan, Craig Overton, Ollie Pope, Ollie Robinson, Ben Stokes, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood

Schedule

First Test: Australia won by nine wickets

Second Test: December 16-20, Adelaide Oval

Third Test: December 26-30, MCG

Fourth Test: January 5-9, SCG

Fifth Test: January 14-18, Blundstone Arena