Final-day drama beckons with BBL triple-header

There are four teams vying for the two remaining slots in the KFC BBL|10 playoffs ahead of today's triple-header of action as the regular season reaches its climax.

The Perth Scorchers, Sydney Sixers and Sydney Thunder are locked in to play the finals but will have almost as much riding on today's results with the table order and hosting rights still to be determined.

Today's action begins with the current table-topping Perth Scorchers meeting the Brisbane Heat at Adelaide Oval (12.30pm AEDT, Foxtel, Kayo and SEN radio).

Interest then switches to the MCG where the Melbourne Renegades host the Hobart Hurricanes (3.50pm AEDT, Seven, Foxtel, Kayo & SEN radio) before the season's finale that is also a rematch of last summer's BBL Final, with the Melbourne Stars meeting the Sydney Sixers (7.30pm AEDT, Seven, Foxtel, Kayo & SEN radio).

Before we get into the permutations, and how today could play out, a reminder of the five-team BBL Finals format

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BBL|10 Finals Series
(venues tbc, all matches will screen on Channel 7, Fox Cricket & Kayo)

Friday Jan 29: The Eliminator (Fourth v Fifth)

Saturday Jan 30: The Qualifier (First v Second)

Sunday Jan 31: The Knock-Out (Third v Winner of The Eliminator)

Thurs Feb 4: The Challenger (Loser of The Qualifier v Winner of The Knock-Out)

Sat Feb 6: The Final (Winner of The Qualifier v Winner of The Challenger)

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With teams finishing first, third and fourth to host finals matches in week one, there's plenty to play for. Net run rate is the first tie-breaker for the BBL, and there's an explanation on just how that calculation is worked out at the bottom of the article. But first, here's a club-by-club look at how today could pan out.

1st: Perth Scorchers (32 points)

Played: 13 | Won: 8 | Lost: 4 | NR: 1 | BB pts: 6 | NRR: 0.949

The run home: Today v Heat @ Adelaide Oval (12.30pm AEDT, Foxtel, Kayo, SEN radio)

The Sydney Thunder's win last night means the Perth Scorchers are guaranteed a top two spot regardless of what happens today, so their motivation will be to secure hosting rights for Saturday's Qualifier final. A return home to Optus Stadium is what kick-started Perth's season after a slow start and they would love a return there just as much as the Sydney Sixers will dread it.

If Perth win – with the Bash Boost point – they can start thinking about travel plans back to the west given the healthy net run rate (NRR) advantage they currently hold over the Sixers.

If Perth win – without the Bash Boost point – they must hope the Sixers either drop a point against the Melbourne Stars in today's final game and don't overtake them on NRR, or that the Stars win outright.

If Perth lose – regardless of the Bash Boost point – the destination of the Qualifier final will hinge on what the Sixers do in the final match.

2nd: Sydney Sixers (32 points)

Played: 13 | Won: 8 | Lost: 5 | Bash Boost points: 8 | NRR: 0.259

The run home: Today v Stars @ MCG (7.30pm AEDT, Seven, Foxtel, Kayo & SEN radio)

Like Perth, they are guaranteed a finish in the top two now after the Thunder rolled the Adelaide Strikers last night. But the Sixers, who play in today's final game against the Stars, will know what they need to do to earn hosting rights by the time they take the field, with Perth playing in the early match.

With the Sixers well behind on NRR, they will be hoping for a heavy win for the Brisbane Heat today to make their job a little easier.

To earn hosting rights for the Qualifier final – likely to be at Manuka Oval given COVID-related travel restrictions – they either need Perth to drop a point and claim maximum points themselves. Or, if both teams take maximum points, the Sixers will need to win by a huge margin of improbable proportions to overtake the Scorchers on NRR.

A loss today for the Sixers will mean a trip to Optus Stadium for the Qualifier final, then return to the east coast for either the BBL Final or the Challenger final next Thursday.

3rd: Sydney Thunder (31 points)

Played: 14 | Won: 8 | Lost: 6 | BB pts: 7 | NRR: 0.949

The Thunder have locked in a finals spot, and you can pretty much say they have locked in a third-placed finish. 

Securing the Bash Boost point against the Strikers last night has proved vital. Hobart can match the Thunder on 31 points today, but the Hurricanes have such a poor net run rate, they would need to beat the Melbourne Renegades by more than 300 runs.

Third place for the Thunder means they will host the Knock-Out final, potentially at Canberra's Manuka Oval given COVID-related travel issues around Sydney, against the winner of the fourth-v-fifth Eliminator final.

4th: Adelaide Strikers (28 points)

Played: 14 | Won: 7 | Lost: 7 | BB pts: 7 | NRR: 0.105

A nervous day awaits the Adelaide Strikers, who could finish fourth – and host the Eliminator final – or finish seventh and have their season ended.

There's a few ways the Strikers can remain in the finals:

1) If Perth win and Hobart lose in today's first two games, Adelaide will be secure in the playoffs, and could finish fourth if the Stars drop a point in the late match.

2) If Perth and Hobart both win, Adelaide must hope either the Sixers win, or at least secure the Bash Boost point. An outright win for the Stars would see them join the Strikers on 28 points, and the Stars already hold a better NRR that would push the Strikers to sixth.

3) If the Brisbane Heat beat Perth and take all four points, the Strikers need the Renegades to beat Hobart, or they are eliminated. But, assuming four points for the Heat, if Hobart claim just the Bash Boost point, they will join Adelaide on 28 points and need to be separated by NRR. If the Stars then beat the Sixers and claim all four points, they would also finish on 28 points, with NRR the tiebreaker.

4) If the Heat win but do not claim the Bash Boost point, they will join the Strikers on 28 points, but the Strikers have a superior NRR. They would then need to hope either the Sixers win at least the Bash Boost point to stay ahead of the Stars. In this scenario, Adelaide will finish fourth if the Renegades beat Hobart, or fifth with a Hobart win.

5th: Hobart Hurricanes (27 points)

Played: 13 | Won: 7 | Lost: 6 | BB pts: 6 | NRR: -0.159

The run home: Today v Renegades @ MCG (3.50pm AEDT, Seven, Foxtel, Kayo & SEN radio)

On the face of it, a final day match against the bottom-placed team may seem like an easy win. But the Renegades have a habit of spoiling parties and this will be no stroll around the MCG for the Hurricanes.

But the equation is pretty simple: A win for Hobart, regardless of the Bash Boost point, and they will lock in a spot in the top five. Securing all four points would put them level with the Thunder on 31 points, but their NRR means they would finish fourth and secure hosting rights for the Eliminator final against whoever finishes fifth.

But things get tricky if Hobart lose today, especially given their poor NRR, but they can still make the finals in fifth spot.

If Perth win the first match, a loss to the Renegades would see Hobart hoping the Sixers beat the Stars. If Hobart don't collect the Bash Boost point and the Stars win, their superior NRR would put them ahead of the Hurricanes.

If the Heat win the first match and collect all four points, defeat to the Renegades ends Hobart's season. If the Heat drop the Bash Boost point in their win over Perth, Hobart must collect the Bash Boost point in a loss to the Gades, and then hope their NRR stays head of Brisbane, and that the Sixers win or at least take the Bash Boost point off the Stars.

6th: Brisbane Heat (25 points)

Played: 13 | Won: 6 | Lost: 7 | BB pts: 7 | NRR: -0.334

The run home: Today v Scorchers @ Adelaide Oval (12.30pm AEDT, Foxtel, Kayo & SEN radio)

A loss to Perth in Adelaide today ends the Brisbane Heat's season, regardless of if they can sneak the Bash Boost point.

But a win today with the Bash Boost point will lift the Brisbane Heat into the playoffs.

If the Renegades also win, the Heat would end up hosting the Eliminator final at the Gabba on Friday night. Incredible.

If the Heat win but do not take the Bash Boost point, they can still make the playoffs in fifth spot, but that requires a Renegades win and a big uptick in NRR to get ahead of Hobart, and a Sixers win. On rough calculations, the Heat would need to win by more than 40 runs while defending, or with five overs to spare while chasing to overtake Hobart's NRR.

7th: Melbourne Stars (24 points)

Played: 13 | Won: 5 | Lost: 7 | NR: 1 | BB pts: 7 | NRR: 0.171

The run home: Today v Sixers @ MCG (7.30pm AEDT, Seven, Foxtel, Kayo & SEN radio)

Last year's runner's up have a tough task to even make the top five this summer, and the Thunder's win last night made it a little bit tougher, but it can be done.

Playing the late fixture means the Stars will know exactly what is required of them – or that their season is already over – but nothing less than a win against the Sydney Sixers will do for them tonight.

Counting in favour of the Stars is they enter today with a NRR that is better than the three teams currently above them – Adelaide, Hobart and Brisbane – and that could yet prove to be crucial.

So, if Perth beat the Heat, and the Hurricanes beat the Renegades, the Stars can leapfrog Adelaide into fifth spot by taking all four points off the Sydney Sixers.

If Perth beat the Heat and the Renegades beat the Hurricanes, the Stars would finish fourth by taking all four points off the Sixers. If they collected only three, they would still likely finish fifth on NRR.

If the Heat beat Perth, however, the Stars' course gets tricky, and the Stars must secure all four points in the final match.

If the Heat take all four points and Hobart win, the Stars' season is over. If the Heat take all four points and the Renegades beat Hobart, the Stars can get into fifth with a better NRR than the Strikers.

If the Heat win with only three points, and the Hurricanes win, the Stars still need to secure all four points, and then could leapfrog Brisbane and Adelaide on NRR. But if the Heat win with three points and the Hurricanes lose to the Renegades, the Stars could finish fourth on NRR.

8th: Melbourne Renegades (13 points)

Played: 13 | Won: 3 | Lost: 10 | BB pts: 4 | NRR: -1.911

The run home: Jan 26 v Hurricanes @ MCG (3.50pm AEDT, Seven, Foxtel & Kayo)

The only team officially out of the BBL|10 Finals race, the Renegades' will take this season's wooden spoon regardless of results on the final day. But they can still play a spoiler role for the Hobart Hurricanes.

If the Renegades win, Hobart's poor NRR would see them eliminated from the BBL|10 finals.

How is net run rate calculated?

The first tiebreaker in the KFC BBL, net run rate (NRR) is a calculation of the difference between a team's average runs per over scored and average runs per over conceded throughout the competition.

Sounds simple, right? But, cricket being cricket, there's some wrinkles. If a team is dismissed inside their 20 overs, the NRR is calculated as if they had faced the full 20 overs. But if you chase down a target inside 20 overs, your NRR is calculated on the overs you actually faced. And then if there's rain delays and Duckworth-Lewis-Stern gets involved, you best leave that formula to the boffins.

As an example let's look at the Sydney Thunder this season. They scored 2343 runs in 256.3 overs, given them a run rate scored of 9.135. Other teams scored 2094 runs against them in 255.5 overs, to give them a run rate conceded of 8.185. Take the run rate conceded away from the run rate scored and you get your net run rate of 0.949.