Six key battles that could decide the BBL|14 Final

After dropping their first game of the season where they were rolled for 74, Hobart Hurricanes have been the dominate team of KFC BBL|14 with eight wins in their past nine matches.

They're unbeaten at Ninja Stadium in six games this season, which is where they'll host Sydney Thunder in Monday night's BBL|14 Final.

It's been a fairytale run for the Thunder to reach their first season decider in nine years after finishing bottom of the standings last season with just one win.

We've crunched the numbers and the form guide to breakdown six matchups that will be crucial in deciding who lifts the trophy on Monday night.

David Warner v Riley Meredith

A box office battle that could kick off the BBL|14 Final depending on the result of the bat flip. Veteran David Warner has showed he's still one of Australia's best T20 batters during his first full season in the Big Bash, and after the Hurricanes Mitch Owen, he's scored the second most runs in the four-over Powerplay in BBL|14 with 129 striking at 131.6.

Meanwhile, Hobart speedster Riley Meredith is the equal second highest wicket-taker (9) during the same period this season and decimated the Sixers' top order in the Qualifier with two wickets in his first two overs. Warner has missed out in both the Thunder's finals matches so far and he'll no doubt be hungry to make a statement early in the decider, so look out for him to take on Meredith with the new ball.

Tim David v Tanveer Sangha

Hurricanes star Tim David has owned the Power Surge this season with a ridiculous strike rate of 285 for his 114 runs in the two-over period of the innings where only two fielders are allowed in the deep. He's averaging a boundary fewer than every two balls faced (1.9) and has cleared the rope nine times during the Surge. David is also yet to be dismissed in the Power Surge, allowing him to go on and ice run chases or set up big totals if batting first.

Since New Zealand quick Lockie Ferguson departed for the season, Thunder skipper David Warner has turned to Nathan McAndrew (5 overs) and Wes Agar (5) in the Surge, and both have conceded more than 10 runs per over across those five overs. The Thunder need to try and get David out in the Surge otherwise he could hurt them in the death overs.

With McAndrew only striking once in the Surge this season compared to Agar's three wickets, perhaps Warner could throw the ball to leggie Tanveer Sangha, with David's strike rate 100 runs fewer per 100 balls against spin (118.64) in BBL|14 compared to pace (219.05).

Mitch Owen v Nathan McAndrew

McAndrew has been the Thunder's most successful bowler in the Powerplay this season with four wickets, but he'll have his work cut out for him in the Final up against Mitch Owen. No one has scored at a faster rate in the Powerplay during a single BBL campaign (minimum 24 balls faced) than Owen (strike rate 211.7) this season. Owen's 235 runs in the first four overs of his side's innings in BBL|14 is also a 106 more than the next best David Warner (129), highlighting just how much he has dominated against the new ball this season. The 23-year-old smashed the Hurricanes to 0-47 after four overs in their Qualifier win over the Sixers, so if the Thunder can get him out early it will go a long way to winning the title.

Chris Green v Nikhil Chaudhary

The Thunder's three-pronged spin attack has been a key weapon in their run to the Final, with Chris Green, Tanveer Sangha and Tom Andrews taking 27 wickets between them at a combined economy rate of 6.87 in BBL|14 – their side's three most economical bowlers this season.

Green, the most experienced of the three and member of the last Thunder XI to win the men's title in BBL|05, is the club's leading wicket-taker (12) this season. With Hobart set to face up to 12 overs of spin in the Final, they'll look to middle-order man Nikhil Chaudhary, who has been their most productive against the slower bowlers in BBL|14 with 114 runs while only being dismissed once. Mitch Owen has also been destructive with his 102 runs against spin coming at a strike rate of 182.1, with negating the impact of the three Thunder spinners crucial in allowing finishers Tim David and Matthew Wade to get to work in the closing stages of the innings.

Nathan Ellis and Chris Jordan v Sam Billings

When the Thunder lost Daniel Sams for the season, they not only lost their skilful death bowler but also their finisher with the bat. Since then, Tom Andrews (59), David Warner (59), Sam Billings (43), Chris Green (35) and Nathan McAndrew (35) have all chipped in with runs in the final five overs of the innings.

In their Challenger win over the Sixers, it was Billings who took the game deep and if he can again on Monday it'll go a long way to helping disrupt the effectiveness of Nathan Ellis and Chris Jordan, who have the sixth (9.42) and third (8.53) best economy rates respectively during the death overs (16-20) in BBL|14 (minimum 50 balls bowled).

Sixers captain Moises Henriques said following their loss to the Hurricanes in the Qualifier with 40 required off 20 you'd usually feel confident, except when Ellis and Jordan still had 18 of those balls to bowl.

Thunder v Hobart crowd

The Hurricanes have won all six of their home games in BBL|14 with the crowd growing larger with each game. Monday's final sold out within 10 minutes of the final allocation of tickets going on sale and the Thunder can expect a sea of purple when they walk onto Ninja Stadium.

Apart from the atmosphere of their home fans, the Hurricanes also play their home conditions extremely well and have won 12 of their 15 matches at Ninja Stadium over the past three seasons. Their team batting average at home (33.23), where the ground dimensions are shorter square of the wicket, is more than 10 runs higher than away (22.47) from home this season, while their bowling economy rate is 2.13 runs fewer per over at Ninja Stadium (7.49) compared to other venues (9.62).

In the two sides most recent match at Ninja Stadium on January 10, the Hurricanes chased down the Thunder's 6-164 with 19 balls remaining, with Tim David clearing the rope six times – all square of the wicket – in his 68 not out from 38 balls, while the Thunder didn't hit a single six during their batting innings.

KFC BBL|14 finals schedule

Qualifier: Hobart Hurricanes beat Sydney Sixers by 12 runs

Knockout: Sydney Thunder beat Melbourne Stars by 21 runs (DLS)

Challenger: Sydney Thunder beat Sydney Sixers by 4 wickets

Final: Hobart Hurricanes v Sydney Thunder, Ninja Stadium (Monday, January 27, 7.15pm AEDT)