Recent run chase record gives Aussies hope despite challenges

As Australia eyes another challenging fourth-innings run chase to maintain their grip on the Border-Gavaskar Trophy that India is furiously attempting to loosen, two crucially historic factors loom as decisive.

The first is the availability or otherwise of strike weapon Jasprit Bumrah, who today claimed a new benchmark for an India bowler in Australia before being forced from the field with back spasms that required scans at a Sydney hospital.

The other is the recent fragility of Australia's top-order batting which has also set a new record on their own turf, albeit one that won't bring warm reassurance to the home team as they embark on a fourth-innings chase that currently stands at 146.

When Bumrah had Marnus Labuschagne caught behind in his second over of today, he overtook left-arm spinner Bishan Bedi's tally of 31 wickets (set during the first disruptive summer of World Series Cricket in Australia) as the best by an India bowler down under.

But it was just over 90 minutes later, by which time Bumrah had spent time off the field before heading to hospital, that Australia equalled an all-time low stretching back to the very first Test match in 1877.

With the dismissal of Steve Smith five runs shy of the 10,000 Test-runs milestone, Australia slumped to 5-96, which represented the fifth time in four and half Tests this summer the hosts have found themselves five-down with less than 100 on the board.

The only other Australia summer when the top six have proved so regularly unproductive was the 1977-78 Ashes campaign, when the hosts fielded a virtual second XI due to the second summer of the WSC split and were thumped 5-1 in a six-match series.

On that occasion, there was no single tormentor of an inexperienced batting ensemble with England's wickets shared by seamers Bob Willis (23), Ian Botham (20) and Mike Hendrick (19) while spinners Geoff Miller and John Emburey collected 23 and 16 respectively.

With almost twice as many scalps as the next-best India bowler (Mohammed Siraj with 19), Bumrah has proved a far more potent one-man wrecking ball than when Australia's top-order previously hit such heavy weather.

And it is to the credit of Australia's lower-order batters and their relentless bowlers that – unlike that forgettable Ashes summer of almost 50 years ago – they have not only remained competitive in this five-match series, but led 2-1 heading into the SCG decider.

If there are circumstances beyond Bumrah's potential unavailability that provide cause for confidence in an Australia camp that needs only a draw in this finale to retain the Trophy India have held since 2017, it's their recent record in fourth-innings chases.

Twice in the past 18 months Pat Cummins' team has reeled in targets in excess of 250 when batting last – against England at Edgbaston in 2023 when they posted 8-282, and at Christchurch last March when they reached 281 for the loss of seven wickets.

Should they take the final four India wickets without the addition of too many more runs tomorrow, they will face a significantly smaller pursuit but on a SCG pitch that presents decidedly more challenges with no team reaching 200 in the game to date.

"The (SCG) ground staff have done an incredible job in terms of creating a wicket with something in it," Australia coach Andrew McDonald said after stumps today with India 6-141 having scored at a frantic rate of 4.4 an over in the final session.

"Traditionally here it's quite benign and we've had a lot of draws, (with) a lot of people talking about the draws so you're damned if you do and damned if you don't.

"So although I think he (SCG curator) is trying to produce an even contest between bat and ball, has it favoured bowlers a little bit more than we expected and potentially the ground staff expected? 

"There's no doubt about that.

"We've won the toss and bowled a little bit of late, so we've put ourselves in those positions (fourth innings chases) more often (but) every situation, every game is different.

"The scenario of the surfaces all that type of thing, but I think if you've been there and done that before you take confidence from that to be able to navigate through those scenarios.

"In particular the lower order which potentially may be called upon tomorrow."

In addition to today's top-order implosion, Cummins' team has found themselves 5-38 and 5-79 in the opening Test at Perth, 5-33 in the second innings at Brisbane, and 5-85 at the MCG a week ago.

In total, Australia's first five partnerships averaged 24.82 runs per wicket in the first half of each innings against a rampant England in 1979-80, whereas this summer has brought a slightly higher yield of 27.75 against Bumrah and co.

The most significant difference between the two events 46 summers apart is the glaring lack of Test cricket credentials Australia's batting line-up boasted back then.

Opener Gary Cosier (18) was the most experienced specialist batter come the end of that ill-fated campaign, four more appearances than beleaguered skipper Graham Yallop with future leaders Kim Hughes (nine) and Allan Border (three) in the infancy of their careers.

By contrast, the current Australia batting line-up is populated by veterans Usman Khawaja (78 Tests), Labuschagne (55), Smith (113), Travis Head (54) and Mitchell Marsh (46) with Nathan McSweeney, Sam Konstas and Beau Webster the newcomers this summer.

But while Australia have clearly struggled in the face of Bumrah's dominance prior to his injury setback, India's highly rated top-order haven't found it much easier against Cummins (23 wickets at 22.65), Scott Boland (19 at 14.42) and Mitchell Starc (18 at 28.66).

Like the home team, India have been put under the pump at 5-59 (Perth), 5-87 and 5-105 (Adelaide), 5-74 (Brisbane), 5-159 and 5-127 (Melbourne), and 5-120 plus 5-124 in the current match in Sydney where 15 wickets fell on day two.

McDonald noted the depths of both teams' pace-bowling stocks played an influential part in the regular top-order collapses seen throughout the series, particularly as fresh batters struggle against a newish ball in the early overs.

But he noted the capacity of middle and lower-order batters to put together meaningful stands when the ball becomes older and softer as an indicator that batting is not impossible, just glaringly difficult.

"Both attacks are blessed with probably some generational talent," McDonald said.

"The surfaces (in Australia) have been like this for a period of time, so they've been difficult to bat on.

"There's been more seam, the bowling averages have come down and so have the batting averages.

"So we're not surprised by the nature of the games where a new batter coming in is always vulnerable but if you can get a partnership going, it's shown that you can score runs on these surfaces.

"The bowing attacks have dominated in this game in particular, and even the MCG was offering enough but if you were able to apply yourself as a batter you were able to find ways through it."

NRMA Insurance Men's Test Series v India

First Test: India won by 295 runs

Second Test: Australia won by 10 wickets

Third Test: Match drawn

Fourth Test: Australia won by 184 runs

Fifth Test: January 3-7: SCG, Sydney, 10.30am AEDT

Australia squad: Pat Cummins (c), Sean Abbott, Scott Boland, Alex Carey, Travis Head (vc), Usman Khawaja, Sam Konstas, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Mitchell Marsh, Jhye Richardson, Steve Smith (vc), Mitchell Starc, Beau Webster

India squad: Rohit Sharma (c), Jasprit Bumrah (vc), Yashasvi Jaiswal, KL Rahul, Abhimanyu Easwaran, Devdutt Padikkal, Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Rishabh Pant, Sarfaraz Khan, Dhruv Jurel, Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja, Mohammed Siraj, Akash Deep, Prasidh Krishna, Harshit Rana, Nitish Kumar Reddy, Washington Sundar. Reserves: Mukesh Kumar, Navdeep Saini, Khaleel Ahmed, Yash Dayal