Rare follow-on call on the cards but weather looms large

Australia are open to enforcing the follow-on for just the second time during Pat Cummins' captaincy tenure with Brisbane's miserable weather shaping as the main barrier to the hosts taking a 2-1 series lead.

Cummins' men are in a formidable position in the third NRMA Insurance Test against India despite only a quarter of the overs on days one and three being bowled. With two days to play, India are still 195 runs away from passing the follow-on mark of 246 after their top-order flailed in between squalls on Monday, slumping to 4-51 in reply to the Aussies' 445.

"We hold a few more cards than they do," Mitchell Starc told ABC radio after dismissing Yashasvi Jaiswal for the third time in four innings, while also having Shubman Gill caught in the gully.

"Tomorrow is going to dictate what happens, if we can get the ball in the right areas and take a few early ones. That obviously brings in the extra card of the follow-on.

"The fantastic effort of the batters in the first innings gives us that option as well. When you score 450 and have a team four for 50, you hold all the cards. We've certainly got the options there. It's just going to see how it plays out in that first session (of day four), I'd say."

The weather could well play spoilsport, with the Bureau of Meteorology predicting up to 30mm of rain on day four and up to 25mm more on day five.

"We've got six wickets to take first," Mitch Marsh told reporters on Monday when asked about the follow-on. "But we know that we've got to take 20 wickets to try and win this Test match, and all the conversations and all the planning will be, 'How do we do that?' 

"So hopefully the weather holds off, and then tomorrow it's just about coming in, having a crack and see where we get to.

"We're always asking for the (weather) radar and what's happening, (and with) two days to go, I think there's still plenty of time for a result."

The uncertainty over the weather should embolden Cummins if Australia knock India over cheaply in their first innings. If he sends the visitors back in, it would be the first time he has enforced the follow-on since the drawn 2022-23 SCG Test against South Africa.

Tim Paine asking Pakistan to bat a second time in a row during the 2019-20 Adelaide Test marks the only time in the last decade that Australia's men's team has won after enforcing the follow-on. 

The tactic has gone out of fashion in recent times, though it is a statistical fallacy that Australia's famous loss after enforcing the follow-on in the 2001 Kolkata Test spooked Steve Waugh's successors from doing it again.

Cummins has had five opportunities to enforce the follow-on but only pulled the trigger in that South Africa Test, prioritising rest for his bowlers between innings. 

Steve Smith, in two Tests filling for Cummins since the paceman took over the job, had the chance to enforce the follow-on in both matches and declined on both occasions.

The six times Australia elected not to enforce it since Cummins has begun his leadership tenure, they have failed to win only once; they drew in Karachi in 2022 when Pakistan batted for 171.4 overs in the fourth innings.

"I think some of the commentators like day fives off, so that's normally why they talk about it," Cummins said during the 2022-23 Perth Test against West Indies when Australia won after declining the follow-on.

"There's really not too many instances where the follow-on is realistic. You always bowl better when you're slightly fresher. Day five is normally harder (to bat) than day three or four."

NRMA Insurance Men's Test Series v India

First Test: India won by 295 runs

Second Test: Australia won by 10 wickets

Third Test: December 14-18: The Gabba, Brisbane, 11.20am AEDT

Fourth Test: December 26-30: MCG, Melbourne, 10.30am AEDT

Fifth Test: January 3-7: SCG, Sydney, 10.30am AEDT

Australia squad: Pat Cummins (c), Sean Abbott, Scott Boland, Alex Carey (wk), Brendan Doggett, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Mitch Marsh, Nathan McSweeney, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Beau Webster

India squad: Rohit Sharma (c), Jasprit Bumrah (vc), Yashasvi Jaiswal, KL Rahul, Abhimanyu Easwaran, Devdutt Padikkal, Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Rishabh Pant, Sarfaraz Khan, Dhruv Jurel, Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja, Mohammed Siraj, Akash Deep, Prasidh Krishna, Harshit Rana, Nitish Kumar Reddy, Washington Sundar. Reserves: Mukesh Kumar, Navdeep Saini, Khaleel Ahmed, Yash Dayal