WTC final run home: Who will join South Africa at Lord's?

South Africa have booked their spot in the World Test Championship (WTC) final at Lord's next June with a thrilling two-wicket win over Pakistan in the Boxing Day Test at Centurion.

With only six Tests left to play in the current WTC cycle, just three of those – spread across both remaining series involving Australia – will have an impact on whether it's the Aussies, India or Sri Lanka who take on the Proteas for a chance to lift the mace at Lord's.

While over-rate penalties could still play a part, Australia have jumped India into second spot in the WTC standings following their own epic Boxing Day Test win. Pat Cummins' side now appear in the box seat to claim the second spot in the Test decider and need just one win from their remaining three matches.

The dream isn't over for either India or Sri Lanka, but they need results to go their way, while the remaining five nations have been eliminated from the running.

1. South Africa (Q)

P 11 | W 7 | D 1 | L 3 | Pen 0 | Points 88 | PCT% 66.67

Remaining Tests: January 3 v Pakistan (home)

Form guide (most recent first): WWWWWW

South Africa were fifth before the start of their home Test summer, but with six wins on the bounce, they are the first team to book their ticket to Lord's on June 11-15.

Chasing 148 for victory, the Proteas slipped to 3-19 and then 8-99 in their second innings before an unbeaten 51-run ninth wicket partnership between Marco Jansen and Kagiso Rabada got them over the line.

Making South Africa's feat even more remarkable it that they sent a second-string Test side to New Zealand last February due to a clash with their domestic T20 competition and subsequently lost both matches.

"It's been a great effort from everyone," captain Temba Bavuma said. "It feels like all the hard work we've put in over the past 12 months has paid off. Different guys have stepped up at different times — it's been a real team effort."

The Proteas will maintain top spot if they beat Pakistan this weekend, regardless of Australia's results in their final three matches.

2. Australia

P 16 | W 10 | D 2 | L 4 | Pen -10 | Points 118 | PCT% 61.46

Remaining Tests: January 3 v India (home), two v Sri Lanka (away)

Form guide: WDWLWW  

One more win from their remaining three Tests should be enough for Australia to reach the final for a chance to defend their title, barring any points deductions due to a slow over-rate.

Should Australia win the final Border-Gavaskar Trophy Test in Sydney (for a series result of 3-1), that will be enough to make the WTC Final and eliminate India and Sri Lanka in the process. 

That would put Australia's points percentage at a minimum of 57.02 and even a 2-0 loss to Sri Lanka next year would be more than India's maximum (50.00) and Sri Lanka's (53.85).

Three draws would also be enough for Australia to qualify for the WTC final.

To claim top spot off South Africa, not that it has any significance given a drawn, tied or abandoned final in 2023 would have seen both sides declared joint winners, Australia would need to win their remaining three Tests and hope South Africa don't beat Pakistan.

3. India

P 18 | W 9 | D 2 | L 7 | Pen -2 | Points 114 | PCT% 52.78

Remaining Tests: January 3 v Australia (away)

Form guide: LDLWLL 

Following defeats in Adelaide and Melbourne that sandwiched a draw in Brisbane, India's hopes of making the WTC final are no longer in their control.

Firstly, India need to beat Australia in Sydney; any other result and they will be eliminated.

They would then be relying on either Sri Lanka beating Australia in their two-Test series, or the series ending in a 0-0 draw. If Australia wins one of their three remaining Tests, India will be eliminated.

5. Sri Lanka

P 11 | W 5 | D 0 | L 6 | Pen 0 | Points 60 | PCT% 45.45

Remaining Tests: Two v Australia (home)

Form guide: LLWWWL  

Despite a 0-2 loss to South Africa, the Sri Lankans remain mathematical possibility of securing a place in their maiden WTC final. 

Sri Lanka will be barracking for subcontinent rivals India or a draw in Sydney this weekend to stay alive, as an Australia win would see them eliminated from the running.

If the fifth Border-Gavaskar Trophy Test result goes their way, they would then need to defeat Australia 2-0 at home. Anything less, such as a 1-0 series victory wouldn't be enough for the Lankans to progress.  

Eliminated

4. New Zealand

P 14 | W 7 | D 0 | L 7 | Pen -3 | Points 81 | PCT% 48.21

Remaining Tests: 0

New Zealand thumped England in Tim Southee's farewell Test but despite currently sitting above the Sri Lankans, that victory was a case of too little, too late for the Black Caps.

6. England

P 22 | W 11 | D 1 | L 10 | Pen -22 | Points 114 | PCT% 43.18

Remaining Tests: 0

England's slow over-rates (costing them 22 points) and 10 defeats out of 22 meant they finished well out of the running. Without the deductions they would be sitting on 50.00 percentage points – still out of the race after their third Test hammering at the hands of the Kiwis.

7. Pakistan

P 11 | W 4 | D 0 | L 7 | Pen -8 | Points 40 | PCT% 30.30

Remaining Tests: January 3 v South Africa (away), two v West Indies (home)

South Africa's win over Sri Lanka ended Pakistan's chances. Pakistan can go to a percentage of 45.24 if they win all three of their remaining matches, but that would still fall short by around 8-10 percentage points.  

Bangladesh and West Indies have also both been ruled out of this WTC cycle despite both securing memorable wins, over Pakistan and Australia respectively, in the past 12 months.