What does history tell us about the current opener debate?

It’s the decision every cricket fan in Australia has an opinion on. In essence, it boils down to a choice between the tried, tested and previously underwhelming, or the unknown and untested.

That is what national selectors must grapple with when they sit down to pick the man to open the batting alongside Usman Khawaja in next month's first Test against India.

In the first category are Marcus Harris and Cameron Bancroft, listed at No.2 and 3 respectively for the Australia A match beginning in Mackay today. A non-starter for that game is Matthew Renshaw, the reserve batter on Australia's most recent Test tour to New Zealand, who may also be in the mix for a Test recall.

In the second category are young gun Sam Konstas and South Australia captain Nathan McSweeney, listed to open and bat four respectively in the first of two first-class matches against India A. Konstas has played only six Sheffield Shield matches, while McSweeney has never opened at first-class level.

Selecting a cricket team is always an exercise in predicting the future. But can recent history offer us any precedents for how any of the current contenders might fare?  

Let's start with the 'known' category. Bancroft, Harris and Renshaw have all played between 10 and 14 Tests, all averaged between 25 and 30, have only one century between them (Renshaw's 184 against Pakistan in 2017) and have passed fifty three times apiece.

They are hardly numbers that demand re-selection. Compare them with openers like Chris Rogers (who averaged 42.87 from 25 Tests, hitting five tons) and Phil Jacques (11 Tests, average of 47.47, three tons), who spent similar periods on the outer before getting extended cracks at Test level. Neither would likely have been afforded the same opportunities with similar returns.

The Bancroft-Harris-Renshaw trio nonetheless remain in the frame as the best performing opening batters in the Shield over recent years.

In fairness, they could point out that many great Australian cricketers had tough starts to their Test careers, and not all the ones who made great starts became great players.

So have any recent Australian Test openers gone on to become reliable contributors after making similarly middling starts to their careers?

For the cream of the crop, predictably, the answer is mostly no. Of Australia's all-time leading run-scorers from the opening positions, all bar one had batting averages between 37 and 70 after their 14th Test and all of them had scored at least two centuries. Mark Taylor had made six.

As the above chart shows, however, there is one notable outlier; Matthew Hayden, Australia's most prolific Test opener until David Warner pipped him just before retiring.

Bancroft, Harris and Renshaw might well point to Hayden's slow start to show that even the greatest find Test cricket difficult to begin with. Intriguingly, after 10 Tests, Hayden's numbers are close to identical to those of Bancroft, who played the last of his 10 Tests in 2019.

Hayden's sole century to that point came in Adelaide in 1997 against a Curtly Ambrose-less West Indies team Wisden described as being at "a low ebb". Bancroft could also reasonably argue Hayden did not face attacks as difficult as South Africa's in 2018 and England's in 2019, both on seam-friendly pitches away from home.

While Hayden's years in the wilderness did not necessarily foretell the dominance of Test cricket he would later enjoy; he had 'only' one 800-plus run Shield season after his Test debut, the same number as Bancroft since 2019. Hayden averaged 42.19 for Queensland in his three years on the outer between 1997 and 2000, while Bancroft has averaged 40.40 in the Shield since his last Test in 2019.

Could Bancroft enjoy a similarly fruitful return to Test cricket as did Hayden, who had a dominant run in which he averaged a ton every two Tests over the ensuing three years after reaching that 14-Test mark?

Justin Langer, uniquely qualified to offer his views on both Hayden and Bancroft, made his views on who Australia should pick clear this week.

"I have coached him collectively and personally over time," Langer wrote of Bancroft in the West Australian newspaper.

"His attitude is world-class, as is his work ethic. And I know he is an outstanding fielder, which should always be considered, especially in the slips or under the helmet with our elite bowling attack.

"Admittedly, he hasn’t made any runs yet this season so he knows, like all the contenders, that this upcoming Australia A game on Thursday is a golden opportunity to rip the mantle from the others."

Langer’s own place in the above analysis comes with an asterisk attached. He was deployed at number three in his first 14 Tests (and continued there for his first 38) before moving up to open with Hayden. But he went on to finish with more runs from the opening spot than all but five Australians in history. Sixteen of his 23 hundreds came from the top.

The tale of Langer, who was batting at three when he got picked for Australia in 1993, may be more instructive for our first 'unknown', McSweeney, who has put himself in the conversation for a Test call-up as an opener despite mainly batting at three and four for South Australia.

Langer’s axing from the Test side in 2001 freed up the No.3 role for Ricky Ponting to step into, and when the West Australian was recalled for the final Test of that year’s Ashes tour and promptly made a hundred, the famous ‘engine room’ Langer talks about was born.

In a different kind of way, McSweeney, if picked to debut, would also be going to face the new ball to accommodate a generational talent; let's not forget this current vacancy has been created by Steve Smith, albeit at a different stage of his career to Ponting in 2001, to allow him to go back to No.4.

Shane Watson, Simon Katich and current incumbent Usman Khawaja are other middle-order players who successfully switched to opening later in their careers. All three hold an average above 40 as Test openers.

Finally, we have the other 'unknown', Konstas.

Both Pat Cummins and Andrew McDonald insist youth and inexperience should be no barrier to selection if the 'kid' is ready.

Cummins should know. If picked, Konstas will be Australia's youngest men's Test debutant since the fast bowler was blooded in South Africa in 2011, aged 18, and fourth overall among Aussies.

Konstas will not even be two months post his 19th birthday when the first ball of the opening Test against India is sent down.

History tells us Australia have a solid recent record when picking players that young. Of their 20-or-younger Test debutants over the past four decades, Cummins, Craig McDermott (debuted aged 19 in 1984), Stephen Waugh (20 in 1985) and Ponting (20 in 1995) all went on to forge decorated careers.

Phillip Hughes (20 in 2008) could have become as special as some of those names. Ashton Agar (19 in 2013) and Renshaw (20 in 2016) have not reached the same heights, though both had early success.

Other recent young debutants like Cameron Green (21 in 2020), Mitchell Starc and James Pattinson (both 21 in 2011), and Josh Hazlewood (23 in 2014) have been success stories. Others like Will Pucovski (22 in 2021) and Jhye Richardson (22 in 2019) might have been (or might still be) if not for other factors.

The decision is one of the biggest selectors have had to make in recent times. So how will history judge them?

NRMA Insurance Men's Test Series v India

Australia squad: TBC

India squad: Rohit Sharma (captain), Jasprit Bumrah (vice-captain), Yashasvi Jaiswal, Abhimanyu Easwaran, Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, KL Rahul, Rishabh Pant, Sarfaraz Khan, Dhruv Jurel, Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja, Mohammed Siraj, Akash Deep, Prasidh Krishna, Harshit Rana, Nitish Kumar Reddy, Washington Sundar. Reserves: Mukesh Kumar, Navdeep Saini, Khaleel Ahmed

First Test: November 22-26: Perth Stadium, 1.20pm AEDT

Second Test: December 6-10: Adelaide Oval, 3pm AEDT (D/N)

Third Test: December 14-18: The Gabba, Brisbane, 11.20am AEDT

Fourth Test: December 26-30: MCG, Melbourne, 10.30am AEDT

Fifth Test: January 3-7: SCG, Sydney, 10.30am AEDT