Aussies look to defy history in backs-to-wall chase against NZ

Australia will draw heavily on the reserves of belief hewn from recent successes as they look to defy history and conventional wisdom in pursuit of an against-the-odds win in the second and final Test against New Zealand.

At face value, 4-77 heading into day four at Hagley Oval and eyeing a further 202 runs to complete a clean sweep of the two-match Qantas Tour of New Zealand would seem a stretch, even for a men's team that has enjoyed some stunning victories over the past year or more.

The task becomes even more daunting when it's revealed that, across almost 150 years of Test cricket, Australia has never recovered from being 4-34 (which they were after 15 overs this evening) to reach a total of 279 which is their current victory target.

The best they've managed previously is when they bounced back from 4-9 against Sri Lanka at Moratuwa in 1992 before reaching 9(dec)-271 due to a 130-run seventh-wicket stand between Ian Healy and Greg Matthews that ultimately brought about a draw.

With two days remaining and Christchurch's forecast showing no suggestion of the sort of Manchester deluge that saved Australia from a similarly bleak outlook in last year's Ashes Test at Old Trafford, it's safe to assume a result will be reached at some stage tomorrow.

And even though Australia spinner Nathan Lyon dryly noted the required run rate for victory over those remaining days is barely one run per over "so take the game deep", the fact Australia's current not out pair Travis Head (17) and Mitch Marsh (27) are known strokemakers suggests the outcome will be known sooner rather than later.

Lyon noted the mood within the Australia dressing room wasn't overly cheery as Steve Smith (9), Usman Khawaja (11), first-innings top scorer Marnus Labuschagne (6) and first Test matchwinner Cameron Green (5) all succumbed to the new ball.

But he pointed to the strong belief engendered by coach Andrew McDonald and skipper Pat Cummins, a key factor in the group's World Test Championship and ODI World Cup triumphs last year, as a reason why hope of a stunning comeback remain.

"There's a lot of belief in that changeroom and that's credit to Pat (Cummins) and 'Ron' (McDonald), and the way they go about their leadership," Lyon said after claiming 3-49 in NZ's second innings.

"They've installed a lot of belief that we can win from any position, and we've now found ourselves in this position where our backs are up against the wall.

"New Zealand were on a roll tonight but I'm sitting here understanding and believing we can win, that's for sure."

Lyon can also recall similarities to the team's Ashes win at Edgbaston, a match he rates as perhaps the most memorable of his 129-Test career, where they chased down a near-identical last-day target of 281 with himself and Cummins at the crease when the winning boundary was struck.

Australia had also surrendered early wickets in that pursuit before Khawaja anchored the innings and Cummins crowned the moment with an unbeaten 44, but the first four wickets in that game added a combined 121 which is markedly more than today's early capitulation.

The flickering hope for Australia is that both Head and Marsh have been integral in the successes of the recent past, with the former earning player of the match honours in the WTC and World Cup finals.

And in accepting the Allan Border Medal as the team's premier player over the preceding year, an emotional Marsh paid tribute to McDonald and Cummins for the belief they had shown in him to enable him to realise his boundless potential as an allrounder.

Marsh's most triumphant moment of that storied comeback was the 118 from as many balls he blasted in the third Ashes Test at Headingley – his first in the Baggy Green Cap for four years – which came with Australia in similarly dire strife at 4-85.

"We've still got two world-class batters at the crease now and we've got confidence and belief that if we do the good things for a long period of time, with 'Heady' and 'Marshy' the way they bat then you've got Alex (Carey) coming in next, then anything is possible," Lyon said tonight.

"And we've been able to tick off a couple of totals in the past, so there's a lot of confidence in our batting group and us bowlers with the bat in hand.

'We pride ourselves on our batting, so we'll give it our best chance if it comes down to that."

The other fleeting comfort Australia might take into tomorrow, as NZ eye their first win over their staunch rivals on home turf since 1993 and on any pitch since 2011, is the result of the last year's corresponding Test at Hagley Oval.

In that game against Sri Lanka, the Black Caps were set a fourth-innings target of 285 which they reached eight-down on a day-five pitch that NZ opener Tom Latham claimed was slightly tougher for batting than is the current iteration.

"I think the one against Sri Lanka probably had a bit more pace in it," Latham said.

"And it probably offered a little bit more for the bowlers, so we're obviously going to have a lot of hard work to do tomorrow to come back and try and be as relentless as we can and force a mistake from the Aussie batters.

"It's a great opportunity that I'm sure all of the guys are really looking forward to."

Lyon had earlier noted that batting seemed to become more straightforward once the ball became 40 overs old and started to soften and, with 24 overs already gone in their chase, Australia's batters will be hoping that remains the case.

And then there's the other element of history that the visitors might need to redress if they are to claims a famous win.

The only team to have been bowled out in the fourth innings to lose a game in the nine prior Tests at Hagley Oval was New Zealand in 2022, when they were skittled for 227 by South Africa in pursuit of a distant 426 for victory.

And they began their chase on that day losing early wickets, and crashing to 3-25 which mirrored Australia's stumbling start today.

Qantas Tour of New Zealand

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February 29 – March 4: Australia won the first Test by 172 runs

March 8-12: Second Test, Christchurch, 9am AEDT

Australia Test squad: Pat Cummins (c), Scott Boland, Alex Carey, Cameron Green, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Mitchell Marsh, Michael Neser, Matthew Renshaw, Steve Smith (vc), Mitchell Starc

New Zealand Test squad: Tim Southee (c), Tom Blundell (wk), Matt Henry, Scott Kuggeleijn, Tom Latham, Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips, Rachin Ravindra, Mitchell Santner, Ben Sears, Kane Williamson, Will Young.