'Teams are scared': Aussies' key factor for Warner's replacement

It might seem like nit-picking to highlight the shortcomings of Australia's three most prolific Test batters over the past three years, who have accounted for nearly a quarter of the team’s runs and more than two-thirds of individual centuries over that period.

Against Pakistan in recent weeks, there have been more reminders of the prowess of Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith; Khawaja's 90 in Perth put the result of the series opener beyond doubt, Labuschagne made three half-centuries in the final two Tests in the most difficult batting conditions, while Smith helped save their bacon in the second innings in the closest Test in Melbourne with a 176-ball 50.

That trio remain as important as ever to the Aussie top-order.

But with David Warner now leaving a vacant spot in the top four alongside them, the pace at which the remaining incumbents are scoring has become a valid point of consideration. 

Since Khawaja's return two years ago, no one in the world has scored more Test runs. But, among those with at least 1,000 runs over that period, only three players have scored at a slower strike rate than his 46.35.

Australia's number three and four meanwhile have each suffered notable slowdowns in recent years. Over his first 30 Tests, Labuschagne scored at a rate of 56.04 runs per 100 balls. In his last 16, that figure has dropped to 44.50 per 100. Smith's strike rate has similarly dipped from 56.38 up until the end of the 2019 Ashes, and 46.96 in 37 Tests since.

Even Labuschagne, who credited Warner for having lifted his own batting tempo when they batted together, knows the outgoing opener brought something to the team that the rest of them do not.

"The fear oppositions have for a guy that has played for 10 years – teams are scared," Australia's No.3 told cricket.com.au after sharing in a 119-run stand with Warner that clinched victory over Pakistan at the SCG on Saturday.

"When Dave Warner comes out, it's like 'anything could happen here' – he could get 50 off 50 and take the game away from you."

The same could be said for Travis Head and Mitch Marsh, who have each launched rousing counter-attacks from further down the order in recent times.

But the question remains whether the balance of Australia's line-up would be thrown out by replacing their top-order aggressor with a more circumspect player.

Or whether they have a choice.

"There's not another David Warner out there," coach Andrew McDonald told reporters.

"The ability to put pressure back onto the bowler all the time – it was a joy to watch in his final innings. That'll be considered in terms of what we look for in an opener, but it's more so what we look for in the top seven batters.

"You can have complementing skillsets within that and how they operate and function.

"But there's no doubt you want some players within that order that are able to put pressure back on. We've seen Travis Head to do that with great success in the last 12 months or so."

In that respect, the Aussies know Warner is truly irreplaceable.

Of openers with at least 2,000 Test runs, only two have scored as quickly (Virender Sehwag and Tillakaratne Dilshan) while only three (Alastair Cook, Sunil Gavaskar and Graeme Smith) finished their careers with more overall runs.

Tellingly, none of those players are Australian. It follows then that none of the leading contenders to replace Warner are in the mould of him either.

Over the past season-and-a-half of the Marsh Sheffield Shield, the strike rates of Marcus Harris (46.7), Matthew Renshaw (44.4) and Cameron Bancroft (42.6) are not the kind of numbers that strike fear into opponents.

Nor is the career mark of Cameron Green in Test cricket (46.63), with the allrounder also a legitimate contender to replace Warner, either as an opener or as part of a rejigged middle-order.

Strike rate is, of course, not the be-all and end-all. As Labuschagne noted after wrapping up a third consecutive win over Pakistan a day to spare: "Most of the games are finishing in four days, so I don't think that's going to be an issue."

The value to those further down the order of the Khawaja-Labuschagne-Smith led top-order grinding down their opponents should not be understated either.

Think back to Australia's famous win at Edgbaston last year. Pat Cummins and Nathan Lyon's clutch final-day match-winning stand did not happen in a vacuum; after England made nearly 400 on the first day, Khawaja proceeded to bat for over 13 hours across both innings, wearing out a bowling attack featuring two pace bowlers older than 36, as well as a spinner who had not played first-class cricket in 18 months. By the Test’s final session on a dead pitch, Australia were able to win a battle of attrition.

Australia’s middle-order aggressors have also often benefited from batting with one of the more conservative top-order players; Head and Smith's 285-run partnership during the World Test Championship final against India last year is the most notable example, while more recently, Marsh and Smith put on 153 in a Test-defining stand in the second innings in Melbourne against Pakistan last week.

Wicketkeeper Alex Carey noted that the top-order's long stints are seeing him more regularly come in to face the second new ball.

"They've all scored plenty runs for Australia their own way," said Carey. "They find ways to hang in in tough situations.

"Uzzie's patience is one that I admire. There's no pressure on those guys because as soon as Travis and Mitch get out there, we know the game can accelerate.

"It is nice coming in when the ball is a bit older, definitely, when the quicks have got some overs into them. So no qualms from me, hopefully they spend more time out there."

But the message from Australia's leaders is clear.

"I think in Test cricket, there are some things that remain true, and that is you've got to be putting the pressure on the opposition, you've got to be ticking over the scoreboard – not always, but most of the time," said Cummins.

NRMA Insurance Test series v Pakistan

First Test: Australia won by 360 runs

Second Test: Australia won by 79 runs

Third Test: Australia won by eight wickets

Australia squad: Pat Cummins (c), Scott Boland, Alex Carey, Cameron Green, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Mitch Marsh, Steve Smith, Mitch Starc, David Warner

Pakistan squad: Shan Masood (c), Aamir Jamal, Abdullah Shafique, Abrar Ahmed, Babar Azam, Faheem Ashraf, Hasan Ali, Imam-ul-Haq, Mir Hamza, Mohammad Nawaz, Mohammad Rizwan (wk), Mohammad Wasim Jnr, Saim Ayub, Salman Ali Agha, Sarfaraz Ahmed (wk), Saud Shakeel and Shaheen Shah Afridi