The six factors that will decide the World Cup final

The conditions

There are three main considerations here, two that have been talked about at length (the pitch and the dew) and another that has not (the heat). Let's start with the first two of those. Australia are expecting a tough surface for batting, particularly against spin, and they believe it has been prepared in a way that will provide little bounce for their tall pacemen. If so, advantage India, whose skiddier fast bowlers have been magnificent in this tournament on a variety of surfaces. Dew could be a factor in the second innings; it was when Australia played England in Ahmedabad two weeks ago when the outfield became drenched not long after nightfall. Less so, however, for India’s game against Pakistan here three weeks before that. Pace bowlers have generally enjoyed bowling with the new ball in dewy conditions, but after the shine wears off, batting can become a dream, particularly against spin. Glenn Maxwell's miracle knock in Mumbai was a prime example. And how about the heat? The mercury in Ahmedabad is forecast to hit 33 degrees Celsius and the effect of chasing leather for three-and-a-half hours in the hottest part of the day and the fatigue of players batting in the second innings (see Maxwell against Afghanistan, and Mitch Marsh against Bangladesh in Pune to a lesser extent) has been an under-acknowledged factor in this tournament. Fitness at the tail-end of a long tournament will be paramount.

The Powerplays

It is no coincidence that the two finalists are the most prolific and fastest Powerplay run-scorers in the tournament. Both Australia and India have adopted a bold approach to batting against the new ball, striking at 107 and 112 per 100 balls respectively during the first 10 overs, while no other team had a Powerplay strike-rate above 100. Where India hold an edge is their new-ball bowling, taking nearly double the number of wickets as Australia have in the Powerplay (19 to 10) during the group stage. Add a turning pitch into the equation, which the finalists know will make scoring through the middle and late overs difficult, and it sets the scene for a gripping start to each innings as they look to cash in while the two balls are new and hard.

The King (and the usurper)

Virat Kohli can just flat out bat. How about this for a run of scores this World Cup – 85, 55no, 16, 103no, 95, 0, 88, 101no, 41, 117? That latest was his 50th ODI ton, which saw him eclipse the record for the most in the format held by fellow demi-god Sachin Tendulkar earlier this week. Tendulkar was watching on in the semi-final in his hometown Mumbai and Kohli rose to the occasion. He's a big-game player and Australia know he is the No.1 wicket. So how they get him? No spinner has gotten Kohli more in ODI cricket than Adam Zampa, who was ineffective in their semi-final against South Africa but has been the tournament's standout spin bowler. Australia will want Zampa bowling as many balls as possible to him through the middle overs. Tellingly, Kohli had faced at least 45 deliveries in each of the games Zampa has dismissed him in, which suggests Australia's best chance to get the greatest 50-over cricketer of all-time out once he is set is their leg-spinner.

The match-ups

So many of the tactical decisions that get made on the field are products of detailed analysis. Data has helped teams make more informed calls on who to bowl when, and against whom, who to attack with the bat, and where to put fielders. But the best captains know when to throw all that out the window. In the Kolkata semi-final, for example, should South Africa's best spinner (Keshav Maharaj) really have been held back on a turning pitch until the Aussies had knocked off nearly 30 per cent of their target because Travis Head was a bad match-up for him? Could Australia's most effective bowler (Josh Hazlewood) have bowled out his overs even though Pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc were statistically better options to bowl to David Miller? These are the kind of snap decisions Cummins and his counterpart Rohit Sharma will need to make in the moment on Sunday.

The crowd

This World Cup has felt like a coronation for its home team and there will be more than 100,000 fans demanding to see the crown put on India's heads. As much as Australia have big-game experience (five of their likely XI played in the 2015 ODI World Cup, eight in the 2021 T20 decider) while India do not (only Kohli has played in an ICC final) Sunday will be something else. The roar every time India hit a boundary or take a wicket will be deafening. Louder still if Australia drop a catch. These are difficult things to contend with. If India get on top early and feel the surge of support on their side, they will be difficult to stop.

The weight of expectation

It goes both ways, of course. India are no strangers to pressure. The cricketers who fight their way to the top of the world's most cut-throat cricketing pathway have been dealing with high stakes since they could walk. That expectation only mounts when the ascend to the top. As Rohit put it: "There's so much pressure, there's so much expectation. Always at the airport (players get told): 'You have to win the World Cup. You have to score runs. You have to score 200. You have to take five wickets'." In this tournament, Rohit's men have soaked up the expectations of their cricket-mad fans who have not seen their side win a major trophy in 12 years and responded with a near flawless campaign. But Sunday will be the biggest game of their lives. How they respond will define their careers.

2023 ODI World Cup Finals

First semi-final: India beat New Zealand by 70 runs

Second semi-final: Australia beat South Africa by three wickets

November 19: Final, India v Australia, Ahmedabad (D/N), 7.30pm AEDT