Aussies follow-on fears washed away by Sydney rain

Australia's historic reticence to force an opponent to follow-on, driven largely by the impact the move has on fast bowlers required to shoulder brutal back-to-back workloads, has been jettisoned because of the unique circumstances presented by Sydney's rain-soaked Test.

With a total of 170 overs lost to rain and bad light across the first four days of the third NRMA Insurance Test, it would seem unlikely any outright result could be reached as it enters tomorrow's final day still in the first innings phase.

But a combination of an unpredictable SCG surface and the absence of any further red-ball fixtures on Australia's calendar until they begin their four-Test Qantas tour of India next month has made enforcement of the follow-on a 'no brainer' option should the opportunity present.

South Africa enter the final day 6-149, still 326 runs adrift of Australia's 4d-475 and 127 shy of the total that would ensure their hosts have to bat a second time, which would significantly slow their ambitious push for victory.

So much time has been lost across the first four days of this rain-plagued fixture that Australia's bowlers are fresh – they have so far sent down just 59 overs between five of them – and tomorrow's schedule presents the prospect of a minimum 98 overs across an extended day.

For that reason, pace bowler Josh Hazlewood confirmed the follow-on – which Australia have employed just seven times in almost 220 Tests over the past 20 years – was being eyed as the only method by which an outright win could be achieved by as early as the end of day three.

That was before a further three hours was lost to rain and a damp infield today, at which time Australia skipper Pat Cummins shelved plans to bat for a further half hour this morning and opted instead to take the ball as soon as play was possible early in the afternoon.

"We definitely would have batted if we had the full day's play," Hazlewood said after play today, having snared two crucial wickets alongside his fellow quick Cummins (3-29).

"We probably would have tried to get another 60, 70 runs maybe just to push that follow-on out.

"If they make the follow-on and you have to bat again, it takes time out of the game so you're better off scoring it quickly off seven or eight overs (this morning) and then go out and bowl.

"But we didn’t get on there until after lunch, so we had to go straight out there.

"I don't think there's much option (to enforcing the follow-on) tomorrow.

"I think we'll be out there for the entire day regardless."

Hazlewood also revealed the battery of Test-standard quicks Australia have built over recent years, with the likes of Scott Boland, Michael Neser and Jhye Richardson all earning Baggy Green Caps, means the prospect of pushing fast bowlers beyond the limit might become more common.

Under usual circumstances, the likelihood of pace men having to send down a pile of overs and then immediately turn around and repeat the dose by following-on an opponent has been viewed sceptically as a recipe for workload-related injuries.

But as Australia have shown over the past two summers when Hazlewood and his regular new-ball partner Mitchell Starc have been forced to miss games through injury, or when Cummins was sidelined due to COVID-19 protocols, there is ready made back-up able to more than adequately fill the void.

"I think there's enough quicks now to probably have that mindset going into any game," Hazelwood said when asked if the prospect of a three-week break in the Test schedule immediately after this game makes the prospect of a follow-on more appealing.

"You're there in that XI to win that Test match, and whatever it takes to win it then see how everyone's pulled up regardless.

"I guess in the back of your mind a little bit is we've got three weeks off, so we can sort of burn ourselves tomorrow.

"And if the pace is playing more of a part than the spin, then we'll probably have to push it (workloads) out a bit further."

But despite Hazlewood and Cummins inflicting most of the wounds suffered by South Africa's fragile top-order batting today, the seamer believes it will be spin pair Nathan Lyon and Ashton Agar who loom as trump cards in tomorrow's push for an unlikely outright win.

Lyon claimed the wicket of opener Sarel Erwee among the 25 overs he sent down today, and threatened on numerous other occasions by extracting sharp spin and variable bounce from a pitch that had begun the match disarmingly dry but has been subjected to constant rain and heavy covers since then.

South Africa Khaya Zondo felt Australia's fast bowlers were most difficult to combat when they pitched the ball short, largely because the slow nature of the dry pitch made it tough to gauge how much it would bounce and whether it was safe to duck beneath deliveries that would usually soar above head height.

"It's not quick, it's turning every now and then but it's playable," Zondo said this evening.

"The shorter balls aren't really getting up, I would say that's the only challenge from a seamer perspective.

"When it's short you've got to really watch it because sometimes you expect it to come up at pace but it doesn't really jump because of the pitch.

"That's the one thing you've got to watch for.

"It's almost like you've got to play the shorter ball instead of trying to get under it."

However, Hazlewood claimed the biggest threat will be the right-arm, left-arm combination of Australia's finger spinners which will ensure they have somebody capable of turning the ball into opposition batters regardless of who is at the crease.

"The wicket, after a bit of traffic down it from both ends, looked quite nice with Gazza (Lyon) bowling into that rough," Hazlewood said.

"So I think Ash and Gazza, a big day for them tomorrow probably more so with the ball spinning in with a number of lefties and righties for both of them to work with.

"That will be our focus, then a bit of up-and-down for the quicks with the reverse-swinging ball."

Remarkably, given the amount of time lost to poor weather and the fact Australia didn't bowl their first ball of the Test until after lunch on day four, the curious algorithms that calculate outcome probabilities have the home team rated an 85 per cent chance of victory.

That same computation tool duly gave South Africa no chance of winning which is hardly surprising, but rated their chance of holding out for a draw by not losing 14 wickets across the final day at just 15 per cent.

But Zondo just smiled broadly when asked if there was belief in the visiting team's dressing that, after such as wretched tour in which they've been soundly thrashed at both Brisbane and Melbourne, they could escape a 0-3 clean sweep.

"Yes there is," Zondo said matter-of-factly.

"We've got a day to bat and I'm sure we've done that before.

"So I'm sure we'll be able to do it tomorrow."

Men's NRMA Insurance Test Series v South Africa

First Test: Australia won by six wickets

Second Test: Australia won by an innings and 182 runs

Jan 4-8: Third Test, SCG, 10.30am AEDT

Australia squad: Pat Cummins (c), Ashton Agar, Scott Boland, Alex Carey, Marcus Harris, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Lance Morris, Nathan Lyon, Matthew Renshaw, Steve Smith, David Warner

South Africa squad: Dean Elgar (c), Temba Bavuma, Gerald Coetzee, Theunis de Bruyn, Sarel Eree, Simon Harmer, Marco Jansen, Keshav Maharaj, Heinrich Klaasen, Lungi Ngidi, Anrich Nortje, Kagiso Rabada, Rassie van der Dussen, Kyle Verreynne, Lizaad Williams, Khaya Zondo

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