BBL finals race: Hosting rights up for grabs

The Perth Scorchers and Sydney Sixers have locked up the top two spots, respectively, but the Sixers win over the Hurricanes in Hobart on Monday night has also secured a finals berth for the Brisbane Heat.

Brisbane, with 13 points and currently sitting in third with a game to play, cannot now be knocked out of the top five, although what position they end up in remains in flux.

With three teams now locked into the top five, and three games to go, it's situation critical for the Melbourne Renegades, Sydney Thunder, Adelaide Strikers and Hobart Hurricanes. Here's how it breaks down.

Remaining games

Tonight: Renegades v Strikers @ Marvel Stadium, 7.15pm AEDT

Tomorrow: Hurricanes v Heat @ UTAS, 1.40pm AEDT, followed by Stars v Thunder @ MCG, 7.15pm AEDT

1st: Perth Scorchers (22 points)

Played: 14 | Won: 11 | Lost: 3 | NRR: 1.205

Perth are confirmed to finish top in BBL|12, and as such will host two finals, starting with the Qualifier final on Saturday night against the second placed Sixers. Win that and they will host the BBL Final on February 4. Lose and they will instead host the Challenger final on February 2.

The Scorchers are expected to welcome back Jhye Richardson from injury for the Qualifier, while Lance Morris will also be available having missed their last regular season match with illness. They will, however, be without Ashton Agar who has been called into camp early by the Australian Test squad ahead of their looming tour of India.

2nd: Sydney Sixers (21 points)

Played: 14 | Won: 10 | Lost: 3 | No result: 1 | NRR: 0.846

The Sixers completed their regular season with a win over the Hurricanes in Hobart on Monday night to finish one point behind Perth. It means they will travel west for the Qualifier final on Saturday night, boosted by the confirmation red-hot Aussie Test star Steve Smith will be available for the match. Nathan Lyon has also been cleared to play but the off-spinner has been managing a minor knee complaint ahead of the India Test tour. The Sixers will not have Todd Murphy available, who will spend the weekend at a spin camp in Sydney ahead of the Test tour of India.

Win the Qualifier in Perth and the Sixers will host the BBL Final at the SCG on February 4, but if they lose they will instead host the Challenger final on February 2. Either way, the Sixers will need to solve how to replace Smith, who will be in India by then, having smashed 24 sixes and two centuries in four games to close out the BBL|12 season.

3rd: Brisbane Heat (13 points)

Played: 13 | Won: 6 | Lost: 6 | No result: 1 | NRR: -0.530

Run home: Jan 25 v Hurricanes (UTAS Stadium)

With four wins on the trot the Brisbane Heat are peaking at the right time, and have now secured a spot in the finals after the Sixers win over the Hurricanes on Monday. With 13 points already under their belt, the lowest they can finish is fifth, but could still finish as high as third.

The simplest way to claim third spot – and hosting rights for the Knockout final – is to beat the Hurricanes in Launceston. However, even if they lose to the Hurricanes, wins for the Strikers and the Stars in the other two remaining games would still see them finish third.

If the Renegades beat the Strikers and the Heat lose to the Hurricanes, a win for the Stars in the final game would see Brisbane finish fourth, and host the Eliminator final against the Hurricanes, while if the Thunder beat the Stars they would finish fourth and host the Eliminator against the Heat.

Heat's trio of Test batters Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne and Matt Renshaw have been cleared to play in either or both of the Eliminator and Knockout finals in week one of the finals before they head to India.

Leg-spinner Mitch Swepson will be available to the Heat if they play the Eliminator final, but will only be available for the Knockout final if it is hosted in Sydney given he is required at the Test squad's pre-tour spin focused training camp in that city over the weekend.

4th: Melbourne Renegades (12 points)

Played: 13 | Won: 6 | Lost: 7 | NRR: -0.083

Run home: Tonight v Strikers (Marvel Stadium)

After three seasons entrenched at the foot of the table finals beckon for the Renegades, but it could all be for nothing if they do not win tonight's showdown with the Adelaide Strikers at Marvel Stadium.

If they beat the Strikers, they lock themselves in for a finals berth – and give themselves a great shot at hosting a home final.

Win tonight, and then if the Hurricanes beat the Heat on Wednesday, the Gades will finish third and host the Knockout final at Marvel on January 29, regardless of the Stars-Thunder result.

If the Renegades and Heat both win, the Gades and Thunder will fill the fourth and fifth spots on the ladder. In this scenario, a Thunder win over the Stars would see them join the Gades on 14 points, with Net Run Rate to determine who hosts the Eliminator.

If the Gades lose to the Strikers, NRR will determine their fate, with both teams locked on 12 points. In this scenario, the Hurricanes could join them on 12 points by winning their final game. The Thunder would leapfrog into the finals on 14 points with a win over the Stars, leaving NRR to sort out the teams on 12 points. 

India-bound Test squad member Peter Handscomb will be available for the club if they play the Eliminator, but will be unavailable for the Knockout final. Handscomb, who has overcome a hip injury, has been sparingly used by the Renegades this summer anyway.

5th: Sydney Thunder (12 points)

Played: 13 | Won: 6 | Lost: 7 | NRR: -0.813

Run home: Jan 25 v Stars (MCG)

With only one win in their past four games, it's alarm bells for the Sydney Thunder, but the good news is by playing in the last game of the regular season, they will know exactly what is required of them before they take the field.

If the Renegades and Heat win their games, the Thunder will be secure in the top five before a ball is bowled at the MCG on Wednesday evening.

However, if either of those teams lose, the Thunder will need a win, and because of their poor NRR nothing less will do, to make the finals.

Incredibly, they could yet finish third: for that to happen they need both the Strikers and Hurricanes to win, then knock off the Stars.

David Warner is yet to light up the BBL with scores of 19, 0, 26 and 16 this season. On Wednesday he returns to the scene of his Test double century this summer, and if the Thunder do make the finals, he will be available for either or both of the Eliminator and Knockout finals before jetting out to India with the Test squad.

6th: Adelaide Strikers (10 points)

Played: 13 | Won: 5 | Lost: 8 | NRR: -0.108

Run home: Tonight v Renegades (Marvel Stadium)

It's a simple equation for the Adelaide Strikers tonight: win to keep their season alive, or lose and the season is over.

After initially appearing to be the team to beat in BBL|12 with three convincing wins to open the season, the Strikers suffered a mid-season slump and enter this match on the back of four successive defeats. Their last win, however, was against the Renegades.

If they beat the Renegades again tonight, it will leave both teams locked on 12 points, and nervously waiting for Wednesday's games to see how the NRR situation unfolds.

Adelaide will be hoping for a big margin in their favour to at least lift themselves above the Gades.

Adelaide will then favour a Heat win, which would eliminate the Hurricanes from contention. A win for the Hurricanes would see them join the Gades and Strikers on 12 points but the Canes are on the back foot with a poor NRR.  

The Thunder also have a poor NRR, meaning the Strikers will remain above them if Sydney lose to the Stars, but if the Thunder win at the MCG, only the team with the best NRR out of those finishing on 12 points will make the finals.

Should the Strikers win through to the finals, Test stars Travis Head and Alex Carey will both be available for the Eliminator and Knockout finals before jetting off for the India tour.

7th: Hobart Hurricanes (10 points)

Played: 13 | Won: 5 | Lost: 8 | NRR: -0.373

Run home: Jan 25 v Heat (UTAS Stadium)

Widely tipped before the season as one of the teams to beat in BBL|12, it has been an inconsistent season that will disappoint Ricky Ponting in his first season as head of strategy.

Monday night's loss to the Sixers took their destiny out of their own hands. Of course, a loss to the red-hot Heat in Launceston and their season is over. But even if they beat the Heat, they still require other results to go in their favour.

The Hurricanes will be cheering on Adelaide for a very narrow win over the Renegades tonight as that gives them their best chance. Assuming the Hurricanes can then beat Brisbane – and they will need to put a whipping on them to boost their NRR enough, that will put them level with the Gades and Strikers on 12 points.

The Thunder, already on 12 points, can leapfrog them all with a win over the Stars, meaning only the team with the best NRR out of the Canes, Gades and Strikers will play finals.

8th: Melbourne Stars (6 points)

Played: 13 | Won: 3 | Lost: 10 | NRR: -0.270

Run home: Jan 25 v Thunder (MCG)

Another wooden spoon for the Melbourne Stars. They could still impact the finals though, and a win over Sydney would at least give their home fans something to cheer about. If they can pull that off, it would mean the Thunder would be left to sweat on NRR to decide their fate in the final five.