Australia would all but secure a spot in the 2023 Test showpiece event if they were to sweep both the West Indies and South Africa this summer
Path to Test championship final takes shape for Aussies
Australia's path to the World Test Championship final is a little clearer following England's first Test victory in Pakistan, although far from certain.
Wins in the four remaining NRMA Insurance Tests at home for the Aussies this summer, however, could be enough to secure Australia a spot in the final of the World Test Championship (WTC) before they even board the plane for India.
The caveat is over-rate penalties, as the Australians learned harshly ahead of the inaugural championship final in 2021. Tardy bowling during the 2020 Boxing Day Test against India cost Australia the WTC points they needed to make the final, eventually won by New Zealand.
Image Id: 38AC0F7F98D84A5F8AD507AB00592646If Australia can secure wins against the West Indies in Adelaide and sweep the three-Test series against the Proteas – no mean feat in itself – then even four defeats in India would still see them reach the WTC final – provided there are no over-rate penalties.
Such a scenario would see Australia finish the current cycle with a points percentage of 63.16.
That would be enough to lock in a spot in the final – to be played at The Oval in June ahead of next winter's Ashes tour – regardless of other results.
South Africa currently sit second on the WTC ladder but sweeping the Proteas at home would remove them from the equation.
Australia's nearest challenger is then Pakistan, but their first Test loss means, even with wins in their four remaining Tests at home against England and New Zealand, the best points percentage they can finish with is 61.90.
India, with two Tests to come in Bangladesh this month before they host Australia in February, are also in the running for a spot in the WTC final.
Knowing only over-rate penalties could dislodge them from the WTC top two in India would be one less thing for the Aussies to worry about on a tour where they have won just one series in the past 52 years.
Players have spoken at length about their desire to reach this year's WTC final, after missing a spot in the 2021 decider due to the four-point penalty for slow over-rates.
"It felt like a big missed opportunity that first one," Cummins said last week.
"It probably didn't hit us until the game was actually played and you saw over there New Zealand did well and you wish you were there.
"So it feels like second time around it's got a little bit more on it."
But the players will not be looking to far ahead and keeping tabs on the percentage system used in the WTC, with the Proteas looming.
"I was no good at maths at school so there's no point me trying to work out numbers. I just let other guys do that," Nathan Lyon said today.
"I just need to keep playing my role and winning games for Australia and if we do that, we'll be in the Test Championship (final).
"I'll never support England but good luck to 'Bazball' and hopefully it goes well in the next two matches."
If Australia do qualify, it will make next year's trip to England for the Ashes a six-Test tour with the WTC final currently slated for June 6-11.
The first Ashes Test would then follow from June 16 at Edgbaston.
The Test Championship final is contested by the two top teams from the 2021-23 cycle, with the table sorted by a percentage scored from all points available to a side.
World Test Championship fixtures to come
Australia: One Test v West Indies, three v South Africa, four v India to come
South Africa: Three Tests v Australia, two v West Indies
Sri Lanka: Two Tests v New Zealand
India: Two Tests v Bangladesh, four v Australia
Pakistan: Two Tests v England, two v New Zealand)
West Indies: One Test v Australia, Two v South Africa
England: Two Tests v Pakistan
New Zealand: Two Tests v Pakistan, two v Sri Lanka
Bangladesh: Two Tests v India