Ten years on, can Murali's record be broken?

Ten years ago yesterday, Test cricket's greatest wicket-taker, Muthiah Muralidaran, played the last of his 133 Tests and captured the last of his 800 victims.

The legendary off-spinner signed off in style, taking eight wickets in Sri Lanka's 10-wicket win over India in Galle, exiting the game as its most prolific bowler.

In the decade that has passed since the then 38-year-old walked away from Test cricket, no bowler has got close to matching his monumental tally.

Of active players, England's James Anderson is the closest to Muralidaran's 800 wickets with 587, followed by teammate Stuart Broad (491) and Australia's Nathan Lyon (390).

Next among current players is India's Ravichandran Ashwin with 365 wickets in 71 Tests. Ashwin holds the record for the fewest matches – 54 – to reach 300 Test wickets, ahead of champion fast bowler Dennis Lillee (56) and Muralitharan (58).

Ashwin, who takes 5.14 wickets per Test, would, on paper, appear to be the best chance to overtake Murali's mark.

But with his 34th birthday less than two months away, the off-spinner would need to play another 85 Test matches. At his current average of 7.7 Tests per year, that equates to a further 11 years of Test cricket.

It begs the question: Will any bowler ever pass Muralidaran's record?

Ashwin says given the wear-and-tear of playing three formats across domestic and international cricket, a crammed cricket calendar and the lure of lucrative T20 competitions around the world, nobody will catch the Sri Lankan legend.

"The answer is no," Ashwin told cricket statistician Mazher Arshad.

"The cricketing landscape has changed so much over the last decade or so. 

"The longevity of cricketers is not the same.

"For a very large part when I grew up watching the sport there used to be months when cricket was off.

"Cricketers really got their off time and they were able to play three- and five-match series.  They had a longer span in the game. Nowadays basically every cricketer plays 8-10 months a year minimum. 

"There's so much cricket that's happening that it takes a toll on your body.  At the end of the day all we need to realise is that the body is a machine. It will have its own sell-by date, it will break down. 

"I also think people are specialising. Test cricket is quite a hard deed and to put in the hard work that's required, let's say 50 cricketers are there maybe 25 cricketers are willing to do that.

"It's only natural because T20 cricket is far more rewarding financially than the other formats."

So if Ashwin can't catch Muralidaran, is there anybody currently playing who can?

Anderson, 38 next week, is the closest, but if he keeps going at the same pace (3.86 wickets per Test), he will need to play 55 more Tests to get to 801 wickets, which would take around five years and take the right-armer into his mid-40s.

Broad, four years Anderson's junior, would require another 88 Tests and another eight or nine years at the top level. Fast bowling is not kind to the body, and although both are durable, even that may be beyond the pair.

Lyon, then, maybe the more most realistic chance.

The off-spinner, who turns 33 this November, takes 4.1 wickets per Test and plays on average 10.6 Tests per year, so another decade in the game and another 103 matches would see the Australian break Muralidaran's record.

A lot of things need to go right for that to happen – injury, form and scheduling to name a few – but it is not out of the realms of possibility.

And if Lyon falls short of Murali’s mark, Shane Warne's Australian record of 708 remains a juicy carrot for 'The GOAT'.

Using the same formula as above, if Lyon keeps at the same pace and plays 78 more Tests, he would catch Warne somewhere around his 40th birthday.

While it may seem far-fetched, Warne says Lyon can get there.

"I think he is a chance," Warne told cricket.com.au in August last year after Lyon passed Lillee's career tally of 355 wickets.

"If you do the stats – if he plays another 85 or 90 Tests, and takes four wickets per game, that's 360 wickets – so he'll get me.

"As long as his hunger is there for the game, if he's still enjoying the game.

"I'd love to watch someone get my record, that would be fantastic because it would mean they've done bloody well for Australia for a long period of time."