Final four scenarios for the WBBL

1st: Sydney Sixers (18 points) 

Played 12 | Won 9 | Lost 3 | NRR 0.595

The run home Jan 13 v Renegades (away); Jan 14 v Stars (away)

For the two-time defending champions, the equation is simple: win both remaining matches and the minor premiership and the right to host a home semi-final is theirs. They’ll be favoured to do exactly that, too, but should be wary of a Renegades team on a roll and desperate to make the finals. And as they discovered during the opening weekend of the season, they can ill-afford to take the Stars lightly either. Only the team finishing on top will host a semi-final, with both finals to be played at the same venue on the same day.

2nd: Sydney Thunder (17 points) 

Played 12 | Won 8 | Lost 3 | NR 1 | NRR 0.543

The run home Jan 8 Renegades (home); Jan 12 v Heat (away)

Their wash-out against the Stars at the weekend might well cost the Thunder a chance to finish on top of the table, but either way it’s more than likely they’ll be staying in Sydney for the semi-final double-header on January 19. Their next two games are tricky, but their spot in the semi-finals is assured.

3rd: Brisbane Heat (14 points) 

Played 12 | Won 7 | Lost 5 | NRR 0.887

The run home Jan 10 v Stars (home); Jan 12 v Thunder (home)

It looks like being a tight battle between the Heat, Renegades and Scorchers for the two remaining semi-final berths, but Brisbane at least have their fate in their own hands. The Heat should fancy themselves against the Stars on home turf at the Gabba, while they’ll need to knock off a higher-ranked opponent in the Thunder in their final match in Cairns to seal the deal.

4th: Melbourne Renegades (13 points) 

Played 11 | Won 6 | Lost 4 | NR 1 | NRR 0.595

The run home Jan 8 v Thunder (away); Jan 12 v Hurricanes (home); Jan 13 v Sixers (home)

The Renegades are on a roll after winning four matches in a row and like the Heat, they’ve got their fate in their own hands. Win two of their remaining games and they’ll become the first Melbourne team to reach the WBBL semi-finals. Sounds simple enough, except they’ve got to face the two Sydney teams across the coming week, alongside bottom-ranked Hobart.

5th: Perth Scorchers (12 points) 

Played 12 | Won 6 | Lost 6 | NRR -0.552

The run home Jan 12: v Strikers (Alice Springs); Jan 13 v Strikers (Alice Springs)

A hamstring injury to Elyse Villani has been a big blow to the Scorchers, while fellow international Nicole Bolton is on personal leave indefinitely. Their loss to the Sixers on Sunday saw them drop out of the top four, meaning they need to defeat the Strikers twice in two days in Alice Springs next weekend – and hope the Renegades drop at least two of their last three matches.

6th: Melbourne Stars (9 points) 

Played 12 | Won 4 | Lost 7 | NR 1 | NRR -0.787

The run home Jan 10: v Heat (away); Jan 14 v Sixers (home)

The Stars could still finish on 13 points if they win both of their remaining matches, but even if the Scorchers and Renegades both lost all of their remaining games, the Stars’ poor net run rate of -0.787 hurts them significantly.

7th: Adelaide Strikers (5 points) 

Played 10 | Won 2 | Lost 7 | NR 1 | NRR -0.621

The run home Jan 8: v Strikers (away); Jan 9 v Strikers (away); Jan 9 v Renegades (away); Jan 12: v Scorchers (Alice Springs); Jan 13 v Scorchers (Alice Springs)

Like the Stars, the Strikers have the opportunity to finish on 13 points, but would need to win all four matches, rely on other results going their way and make up a fair amount of ground on NRR as well.

8th: Hobart Hurricanes (4 points) 

Played 11 | Won 2 | Lost 9 | NRR -0.335

The run home Jan 8: v Strikers (away); Jan 9 v Strikers (away); Jan 9 v Renegades (away)

It’s season over for the Hurricanes, who’ve struggled since losing star international Hayley Matthews to a knee injury. They’ve got three matches left now to experiment with their list and give chances to different players, while an upset win could also play a hand in the make-up of the top four.