Scenarios for the Big Bash top four

1st: Adelaide Strikers (14 points)
Played 9 | Won 7 | Lost 2 | NRR 0.933

The run home
Jan 25: v Scorchers (away)

The Strikers' win over the Renegades on Monday was enough to lock in a home-semi final at Adelaide Oval on February 2. They've got one more regular season match to go, in what could well be a preview of the BBL|07 final when they meet the Scorchers in Perth on Thursday. Both teams are already cemented in the top two but a potential home grand final is on offer for the victor, plus bragging rights and a confidence boost ahead of knockout games. After Thursday's game, the Strikers will simply have to sit back and relax as they wait to see who they'll play in the semis.

2nd: Perth Scorchers (14 points)
Played 9 | Won 7 | Lost 2 | NRR 0.13

The run home
Jan 25: v Strikers (home)

Thanks to the Strikers' win over the Renegades, the Scorchers have not only secured their finals berth, they also know they'll be hosting their semi-final at the new Optus Stadium on February 1. They now face a top-of-the-table clash with the Strikers in their final game at the WACA Ground, with victory there securing a chance at a home grand final, while they'll have to wait until Saturday night to find out who they'll play in the semis.

3rd: Melbourne Renegades (10 points)
Played 9 | Won 5 | Lost 4 | NRR 0.178

The run home
Jan 27: v Heat (away)

The Renegades leapt a big hurdle in the race for the final four on Wednesday night when they beat the Sydney Thunder in a nail-biter, but they're not secure just yet. They can end any worries about run rate and other results by beating Brisbane Heat on Saturday night at the Gabba, but a loss there leaves them vulnerable. If they lose in Brisbane, they need to do so by a small enough margin to ensure the Heat don't jump ahead of them on run rate, or hope the Hurricanes lose to the Stars. A Hobart victory and a big Heat win could see the Renegades miss out altogether.

4th: Hobart Hurricanes (10 points)
Played 9 | Won 5 | Lost 4 | NRR -0.277

The run home
Jan 27: v Stars (away)

The Hurricanes are masters of their own destiny, with a victory away from home to the Stars on Saturday to guarantee their finals spot. But a loss to the bottom-placed team will leave the Hurricanes with a very nervous evening watching events unfold at the Gabba as the Heat and Renegades look to jump ahead of them. Counting against the 'Canes is their poor net run rate, the third-worst in the competition, and one that will only get worse if they lose to the Stars. A loss at the MCG will leave Hobart cheering for a Renegades win in Brisbane, but a Heat victory there will mean all three teams will finish on 10 points and net run rate will come into the equation. So have your calculators handy.

5th: Sydney Sixers (8 points)
Played 10 | Won 4 | Lost 6 | NRR 0.331

The season is over for the Sixers but they finished strongly with a four-game winning streak. Each of their four wins was convincing, including absolutely destroying the Brisbane Heat to derail their season, leaving Sixers fans to wonder what might have been.

6th: Sydney Thunder (8 points)
Played 10 | Won 4 | Lost 6 | NRR -0.039

The Thunder's season is done, following their nine-run defeat to the Renegades on Wednesday night. They went down fighting, with some blistering batting keeping them close, but dropped catches cost dearly.

7th: Brisbane Heat (8 points)
Played 9 | Won 4 | Lost 5 | NRR -0.331

The run home
Jan 27: v Renegades (home)

The Heat face a do-or-die battle with the Renegades on Saturday night and while the odds are heavily stacked against them due to a poor net run rate, they do have a couple of aces up their sleeve. Playing on home turf no doubt helps, but it's the return of Chris Lynn - fresh from crunching 11 sixes in a warm-up game on Wednesday - that will have the Heat fans excited. Brisbane's best bet is to hope the Stars roll Hobart in Saturday's early game, then win by a big enough margin to overtake the Hurricanes on net run rate. But if Hobart win, Brisbane will need a massive victory against the Gades to generate a swing in net run rate big enough (more than +0.5) to leap ahead of them into the top four. Nothing less than a win will do, and even then it might not be enough.

8th: Melbourne Stars (2 points)
Played 9 | Won 1 | Lost 8 | NRR -1.066

The run home
 Jan 27: v Hurricanes (home)

The end of this season really can't come quick enough for the Melbourne Stars, yet they can still influence the final four from the foot of the ladder if they spring a surprise and beat Hobart on Saturday. It will be an emotional home farewell for long-serving UK imports Kevin Pietersen and Luke Wright, while Glenn Maxwell will look to continue his run-scoring feast before joining Australia's T20 team. All of which could spell trouble for the 'Cane Train.

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