How Australia can still make CT semis

Australia and New Zealand shared the points in their Group A clash on Friday night in a replay of their 2013 tournament. 

Although there has been another washout, the condensed nature of the Champions Trophy tournament means all four Group A teams – including England and Bangladesh - could still qualify for the semi-finals. 

But only two of will qualify from each group, and that makes every match a must-win encounter from here on in or risk falling foul of either the elements or the dreaded net run rate calculations.

England, with one win already on the board after Thursday night's thumping of Bangladesh, are best placed and have a little breathing room. 

They need just one win against either of Australia or New Zealand to secure their spot in the semis, but will undoubtedly be looking to claim both scalps against their antipodean rivals and secure top seed for the semi-finals.

Australia play Bangladesh in Group A's next match, at The Oval on Monday evening in a day-night affair (10.30pm AEST). The forecast isn't great – in fact it is downright miserable with heavy rain predicted for the evening. But the forecast for Edgbaston proved wrong two days out, so we hold out hope. 

Another no result would complicate matters greatly, and a minimum of 20 overs per side is needed to constitute an official match. 

Should Australia win, that would all but eliminate Bangladesh, which would be a disappointing return for the sixth-ranked subcontinent nation with grand ambitions to prove themselves an ODI force.

Assuming the weather holds and Australia can defeat Bangladesh on Monday, all eyes would switch to Cardiff on Tuesday where England face New Zealand. 

A win for the host nation there, which seems favoured given their form and familiarity with home conditions, would secure Eoin Morgan's men a semi-final berth. 

But if New Zealand then beat Bangladesh, it would leave Australia in a precarious position. Beat England in Group A's final match next Saturday (June 10), and they will join the host nation in the semi-finals. But lose, and they would be locked with New Zealand on three points. 

Then it would come down to tiebreakers.

The ICC Champions Trophy playing conditions set out the rules for tie-breakers to determine who advances to the semi-finals. 

The first tie-breaker is the team with the most wins in the Group matches would advance. In our above scenario, both Australia and New Zealand would have beaten Bangladesh, but lost to England. So we move on.

The second tie-breaker is net run rate. Neither side got any NRR benefit from their Edgbaston washout, so performances against Bangladesh and England will be crucial. 

If, somehow, the NRR was to be identical, the third tie-breaker is the result of the head-to-head match, which in this case was a no result, so no help to beak the tie. 

The final tiebreaker allows for the higher seeded team to progress. And given when seedings for this tournament were set Australia was the No.1 ODI team in the world, that would mean New Zealand exits and Australia progresses.

So net run rate could be crucially important over the next week. But what exactly is it, and how is it calculated? The Playing Conditions provide the answer.

Clause 21.10.4 of the Champions Trophy Playing Conditions state: "A team’s net run rate is calculated by subtracting the tournament's average runs per over scored against them from the average runs they have scored.

"In the event of a team being all out in less than its full quota of overs, the calculation of its net run rate shall be based on the full quota of overs to which it would have been entitled and not on the number of overs in which the team was dismissed."

Things get complicated when the Duckworth-Lewis-Stern calculation comes into play, but no NRR is awarded for a complete washout. 

Champions Trophy 2017 Guide

AUSTRALIA SQUAD: Steve Smith (c), David Warner, Pat Cummins, Aaron Finch, John Hastings, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Moises Henriques, Chris Lynn, Glenn Maxwell, James Pattinson, Mitchell Starc, Marcus Stoinis, Matthew Wade, Adam Zampa

Other squads: Every Champions Trophy squad

Schedule

1 June – England beat Bangladesh by eight wickets

2 June – Australia v New Zealand- match abandoned

3 June – Sri Lanka v South Africa, The Oval (D)

4 June – India v Pakistan, Edgbaston (D)

5 June – Australia v Bangladesh, The Oval (D/N)

6 June – England v New Zealand, Cardiff (D)

7 June – Pakistan v South Africa, Edgbaston (D/N)

8 June – India v Sri Lanka, The Oval (D)

9 June – New Zealand v Bangladesh, Cardiff (D)

10 June – England v Australia, Edgbaston (D)

11 June – India v South Africa, The Oval (D)

12 June – Sri Lanka v Pakistan, Cardiff (D)

14 June – First semi-final (A1 v B2), Cardiff (D)

15 June – Second semi-final (A2 v B1), Edgbaston (D)

18 June – Final, The Oval (D)

19 June – Reserve day (D)