Champions Trophy semi-finals scenarios

The equation for Group A in the Champions Trophy became even simpler on Tuesday when England surged to an 87-run victory over New Zealand in Cardiff to secure their semi-final berth.

Steve Smith's men will secure a spot in the play-offs if they topple the in-form hosts at Edgbaston on Saturday and while Bangladesh and New Zealand are both also alive in the race for the finals, Australia are the only team with their fate in their own hands - weather permitting, that is, and right now the news in that department is less-than desirable (see below).

Quick single: England thrash NZ to surge into semis 

An Australian victory over England is the preferred, and easiest, option. However, the unpredictable United Kingdom weather does leave one other route open.

And after three washed-out games on this tour (a warm-up game against Pakistan and their two group matches), Australia will be thinking about it's time the weather paid them a favour.

It could yet do that on Friday, when New Zealand meet Bangladesh in Cardiff. The winner of that match will progress to the semi-finals should Australia fail to beat England on Saturday, but if the forecast rain wrecks havoc with that match, it will play in Australia's favour.

However, a third wash-out for the Aussies on Saturday would be disastrous.

Table

Remaining fixtures

9 June New Zealand v Bangladesh, Cardiff (D)

10 June England v Australia, Edgbaston (D)

Weather

The Met Office says the weather in Cardiff will be "generally unsettled" bands of rain or showers possible for Friday, but early forecasts are predicting just a 10 per cent chance of rain, making it more likely a win on Saturday will be Australia's only option. Meanwhile in Birmingham, the story is currently far more dire with a 40-80 per cent chance of rain during the scheduled hours of play. Australia will be pulling out the anti-rain dance in the coming days in the hopes that improves.  

 

The scenarios

Scenario one: England beat New Zealand, then New Zealand beat Bangladesh

Outcome: This puts England (4 points) on top of the table, ahead of New Zealand (3), Australia (2) and Bangladesh (1)

For Australia to advance: A loss, a tie or a wash out on Saturday will not do. Australia must beat England.

Scenario two: England beat New Zealand, then Bangladesh beat New Zealand 

Outcome: England (4 points) top the table, ahead of Bangladesh (3), Australia (2) and New Zealand (1)

For Australia to advance: Australia must beat England.

Scenario three:  England beat New Zealand, then Bangladesh/New Zealand is either washed out or a tie 

Outcome: England (4 points) top the table, ahead of Australia (2), New Zealand (2) and Bangladesh (2) 

For Australia to advance: A win over England, another wash out, or a tie will put Australia clear on the points table. Should they lose to England, they could still advance on net run rate. 

Champions Trophy 2017 Guide

Squads: Every Champions Trophy nation

Schedule

1 June – England beat Bangladesh by eight wickets

2 June – New Zealand v Australia, No Result

3 June – Sri Lanka lost to South Africa by 96 runs

4 June – India beat Pakistan by 124 runs

5 June – Australia v Bangladesh, No Result

6 June – England v New Zealand, Cardiff (D)

7 June – Pakistan v South Africa, Edgbaston (D/N)

8 June – India v Sri Lanka, The Oval (D)

9 June – New Zealand v Bangladesh, Cardiff (D)

10 June – England v Australia, Edgbaston (D)

11 June – India v South Africa, The Oval (D)

12 June – Sri Lanka v Pakistan, Cardiff (D)

14 June – First semi-final (A1 v B2), Cardiff (D)

15 June – Second semi-final (A2 v B1), Edgbaston (D)

18 June – Final, The Oval (D)

19 June – Reserve day (D)