The stark reality of Starc's absence

Multiple theories have been floated to explain why Australia has – over a period of three days in South Africa - suffered two of their biggest ODI losses since they were crowned world champions 18 months ago.

The raw (in terms of international experience) nature of a pace bowling attack that is notably lacking in raw pace.

An inability to adjust to the faster, truer condition of pitches in the dry, high altitude conditions of South Africa’s Highveld having spent the previous month on slow, bare tracks in Sri Lanka, even though the former provides the closest international equivalent to what they enjoy at home.

A failure by any batsman in the top six to reach 75 despite all of them, bar captain Steve Smith, having got to 30 at least once over the course of a couple of innings.

But in the cold, hard world of statistics one factor dwarfs all others as a brutal truth when examining Australia’s ODI results since they began their successful World Cup campaign against England at the MCG in February, 2015.

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And that is the presence of Mitchell Starc in the bowling attack.

Even before he sliced open his lower leg in a training mishap, Starc had been ruled out of the current Qantas Tour of South Africa that began with a one-off ODI against Ireland followed by five encounters with the Proteas.

Such is the left-arm quick’s value to his team’s red and white ball fortunes since establishing himself as the spearhead of Australia’s bowling group during the triumphant World Cup campaign, he was to be rested with an eye to the upcoming home summer and the subsequent four-Test tour to India.

However, the brutal truth – especially in the condensed 50-over format of the game – is that his team’s fortunes dip from virtually unbeatable when Starc is there with new ball in hand to even money bet when he’s missing.

A fact acknowledged by South Africa captain in the immediate aftermath of the Proteas clinical 142-run win at Wanderers in Johannesburg last Sunday, which followed less than 48 hours after the six-wicket demolition orchestrated by opener Quinton de Kock at Centurion.

“That’s a big factor,” du Plessis said about the absence of the ODI game’s number three-ranked bowler.

“You throw Starc back into that (Australia) team and it’s completely different, they’re obviously missing someone like him.”

Just how much of a difference can be judged by the results over the past year and a half which are – for want of a less cringe worthy adjective – stark.

The 26-year-old has played in 22 of Australia’s 36 ODIs since the start of the 2015 World Cup in which he was named player of the series, and his team has won 19 of those.

But over and above the success rate of more than 86 per cent when Starc is playing compared to a winning ratio less than half that (six wins from 14 matches) he’s absent is the direct contribution the fearsome quick makes when in action.

In 10 of those 19 ODI wins that Starc has featured in, he’s made the initial breakthrough for Australia when the opposition has put 12 or less runs on the board.

All but one of those occasions – the exception being the second match against Sri Lanka in Colombo recently – his team has pushed on to victory after Starc’s early strike.

Perhaps even more telling, given the pivotal role that South Africa’s openers de Kock and Rilee Rossouw have played in the first pair of matches in this series,  is the average first-wicket stand put on by opposition teams facing the fast, swinging left-arm thunderbolts.

With Starc leading the attack, rival openers average just over 25 for the first wicket.

When he’s absent, as he was for a period between December 2015 and last June when he returned from a foot fracture and major ankle surgery, that total blows out to 58, more than double.

Of current international players, only New Zealand all-rounder Corey Anderson (92.3 per cent of matches that have yielded a result) and another NZ left-arm quick Trent Boult (86.7 per cent) can boast of being involved in a higher ratio of wins for his country than Starc’s 86.4 per cent strike rate since the start of last year’s World Cup.

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Although Starc can claim to have played significantly more completed matches than his fellow left-armers in that time – 22 to Anderson’s 13 and Boult’s 15.

While another southpaw, Australia’s James Faulkner – man of the match in the 2015 World Cup Final and also absent from the current South Africa tour due to injury – sits fourth on the list with a winning ratio of 80 per cent.

With India’s left-arm orthodox spinner Axar Patel sitting fifth on that table at 75 per cent.

So perhaps it is not so much the lack of experience in Australia’s revamped ODI attack that is responsible for the similar lack of results over recent days, but rather the absence of anyone other than part-time tweaker Aaron Finch who bowls with their left-hand.

Certainly former ODI captain and current top-order batter George Bailey is not citing the Starc factor as the glaring reason behind a pair of thumping defeats.

“It’s just what you have to deal with,” Bailey said in relation to Starc’s absence and the fact that four of Australia’s five specialist pace bowlers on this tour – with the exception being John Hastings – have made their international debuts in 2016.

“I think that the quicks we’ve got (in South Africa) have the skills, and they’re going to be learning really quickly.

“There’s probably no better spot to learn than against the best, and they will have to adapt and have to learn, and I’m sure they will.”

If they don’t, then Australia might find themselves staring at a third consecutive ODI loss, something they’ve not experienced since their winless five-game 2012 series against England in the UK.

A tournament in which Mitchell Starc did not take part, but a result that ultimately led to him earning a regular place in Australia’s one-day international set-up.