World Cup pool stage scenarios explained

New Zealand’s commanding win over Afghanistan on Sunday was their fifth victory from as many matches and sealed their spot on top of Pool A.

Likewise, Australia have secured their place in the quarter finals courtesy of their win over Sri Lanka, while Sri Lanka are also likely to stay in the four, setting up a make-or-break match for England against Bangladesh in Adelaide tomorrow.

In Pool B, Pakistan’s upset win over South Africa ensured the battle for the top four remained wide open.

Currently, only India have guaranteed a spot in the knock-out stages, while South Africa are also in the box seat to advance. Ireland, Pakistan and West Indies are set to battle for the final two spots.

Tables: View the standings in Pools A & B

Pool A

Remaining matches:

England v Bangladesh, Adelaide, March 9

Sri Lanka v Scotland, Hobart, March 11

New Zealand v Bangladesh, Hamilton, March 13

England v Afghanistan, Sydney, March 13

Australia v Scotland, Hobart, March 14

1. New Zealand (played 5, won 5, lost 0, points: 10)

New Zealand’s spot in the quarter finals is signed, sealed and delivered. Sri Lanka’s loss to Australia means New Zealand could not be dislodged from top spot and with an enormous net run rate and one match remaining against Bangladesh, the Black Caps will finish on top of Pool A and play the fourth-ranked Pool B qualifier – likely to be either Ireland, West Indies or Pakistan – in  Wellington.

2. Australia (played 5, won 3, lost 1, no result 1, points: 7)

After winning Sunday’s crucial match against Sri Lanka, Australia’s place in the quarter finals is assured. All Australia need to do now to secure a second-placed finish in Pool A is defeat winless Scotland in Hobart on Sunday.

With South Africa likely to finish second in Pool B despite their loss to Pakistan, securing second spot in Pool A sets up an Adelaide Oval quarter-final for Australia against either Ireland, Pakistan or West Indies.

3. Sri Lanka (played 5, won 3, lost 2, points: 6)

A win against Australia on Sunday would have meant Sri Lanka’s place in the quarter finals was assured. However, all that now stands between Sri Lanka and the finals is winless Scotland, so it is more than likely they will progress.

However, a win over Scotland will now only be enough for Sri Lanka to finish third in the group unless Australia are upset by the same opponent in Hobart on Wednesday.

If Sri Lanka also loses to Scotland, England and Bangladesh could both pose threats. If England win both of their remaining matches - against Bangladesh and Afghanistan – by decent margins and if Bangladesh lose to England but upset New Zealand, Sri Lanka could miss the finals altogether.

Sri Lanka will play their quarter final at the SCG, so finishing third sets up a likely clash with South Africa.

4. Bangladesh (played 4, won 2, lost 1, no result 1, points: 5)

Bangladesh have two big matches ahead of them against England and New Zealand but just one win will be enough to ensure a place in the quarter finals, thanks to the point they picked up from the wash-out against Australia.

If they lose both games, they will rely on England losing to Afghanistan to progress. A fourth-placed finish would see them play India at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.

5. England (played 4, won 1, lost 3, points: 2)

England have been lacklustre throughout the tournament to date with their sole win coming against Scotland. They need to win both of their remaining matches to make the finals, starting with the crucial match against Bangladesh in Adelaide.

Even if they win that, they will still need to defeat Afghanistan and hope Bangladesh does not upset New Zealand in order to advance.

Depending on NRR, England could even overtake Sri Lanka if they lose to Scotland this week, but a major upset would be required.

A fourth-placed finish would see them play India at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.

6. Afghanistan (played 5, won 1, lost 4, points: 2)

Afghanistan registered a historic first World Cup victory against Scotland but their first quarter-finals appearance will not happen in 2015. They do have the chance to upset England and end their hopes of making the finals, however.

7. Scotland (played 4, won 0, lost 4, points: 0)

Winless from four World Cup matches, Scotland cannot advance. But with matches against Sri Lanka and Australia remaining, the Scots have a chance to cause a major upset and throw one or both teams into disarray before the finals.

Pool B

Remaining matches:

India v Ireland, Hamilton, March 10

South Africa v United Arab Emirates, Wellington, March 12

India v Zimbabwe, Auckland, March 14

West Indies v United Arab Emirates, Napier, March 15

Pakistan v Ireland, Adelaide, March 15

1. India (played 4, won 4, lost 0, points: 8)

India are undefeated after four matches and cannot drop outside the top four. They are also unlikely to be removed from the top of Pool B, with just one win needed from their final two matches against Ireland Zimbabwe to secure outright top spot.

Finishing first means India will play the fourth-ranked team in Pool B in a quarter final, most likely to be either England or Bangladesh in Melbourne.

2. South Africa (played 5, won 3, lost 2, points: 6)

South Africa’s rollercoaster World Cup continued against Pakistan on Saturday when they tumbled to a 29-run loss. Twice, the Proteas have scored more than 400 runs this tournament, but they have also been skittled for 177 and 202. That said, South Africa’s only remaining match is against the winless United Arab Emirates.

With a comfortable NRR of +1.462, a win against UAE will see the Proteas finish in second spot. But an upset loss could see them finish third if Pakistan defeat Ireland, or, in a less likely scenario, if West Indies themselves have an enormous win over UAE and manage to lift themselves above the Proteas on NRR.

Technically, the Proteas could finish as low as fourth (if Ireland defeated India and Pakistan beat Ireland) or even miss the playoffs altogether (if the Windies managed that enormous UAE win), but in all likelihood South Africa will finish second and play the third-ranked team from Pool A; likely to be Sri Lanka in Sydney.

3. Pakistan (played 5, won 3, lost 2, points: 6)

Pakistan’s win over South Africa has made their path to the finals a much steadier one. A win over Ireland next Saturday will seal the deal, but even if they lose, West Indies would need a large win over UAE to sneak ahead on NRR.

With both matches to take place just hours apart on either side of the Tasman, the pool stage is set for an exciting finish.

Finishing third would likely set up a clash with Australia in Adelaide, while the team which finishes fourth in Pool B will play New Zealand in Wellington.

4. Ireland (played 4, won 3, lost 1, points: 6)

Ireland have had a strong World Cup to date and have two matches left up their sleeve coming into the final week of pool matches.

Wins in both games against India and Pakistan would seal a spot in the knock outs and second spot on the table.

Even one win against either India or Pakistan will be enough to finish third or fourth. Ireland would also be safe if they lost both matches and West Indies were upset by UAE. But two losses and a win to the Windies will see Ireland finish fifth thanks to their poor NRR; a result of the thrashing at the hands of South Africa and narrow wins against UAE and Zimbabwe.

5. West Indies (played 5, won 2, lost 3, points: 4)

West Indies have shown they can be very good or they can struggle during their first five matches. After starting the tournament with a disappointing four-wicket loss to Ireland, they followed up by thrashing Pakistan. A big win over Zimbabwe, led by Chris Gayle’s 215, followed, before they were smashed by the Proteas in Sydney three days later. A disappointing batting performance and subsequent loss to India in Perth followed.

However, West Indies’ last remaining match is against UAE and they can still make the play-offs. If Ireland lose their two remaining games and the Windies beat UAE, the quarter finals beckon due to their superior NRR.

In a less likely scenario, the Windies could also make it on NRR if they beat UAE and Pakistan lose to Ireland, but big margins would be needed on either side for it to happen.

6. Zimbabwe (played 5, won 1, lost 4, points: 2)

Zimbabwe’s loss to Pakistan was a major blow to their hopes of making the knock outs and the loss to Ireland on Saturday made it a done deal. Zimbabwe can try and salvage some pride by upsetting India in their final match of the tournament.

7. United Arab Emirates (played 5, won 0, lost 5, points: 0)

United Arab Emirates have played five matches for three losses, but the Associate team can at least be happy in the knowledge they were more than competitive in their first two matches.

They can also have a say in the final make-up of the top four, as upset wins against either South Africa or West Indies would cause havoc.